The last election campaign barely saw a mention of foreign policy issues even though the attitudes and concerns of Australians are changing significantly.
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This week the Lowy Institute released its 2019 poll, Understanding Australian Attitudes to the World. The poll summarises the global situation in the following terms: "Every day the liberal international order seems less liberal, less international and less orderly. Both Washington and Beijing are seeking to revise the international status quo. Australia's leadership role in the Pacific is being tested. Cracks in the international economy appear to be widening".
These are all very significant and challenging trends for Australia, yet our governments give them only cursory attention, more or less attempting to muddle on as circumstances change, reactive rather than proactive, certainly with no longer-term strategy defined by our national interests.
There have been significant shifts in our attitudes to both China and the US. The poll finds our views towards China have "soured", and now trust in and warmth towards China are at their lowest level in the 15-year history of the poll. Concerns have increased about our economic dependence on China, that we should be doing more to resist China's military activities in our region, and there is scepticism about Chinese investment in Australia, and about their regional intentions.
Our confidence in the US is also weakening, with the pace of China's rise, and the Trump presidency. However, while two-thirds believe that Trump has weakened our alliance, more than seven out of 10 still see it as fairly or very important to our security. Confidence in Trump is at lower levels than in Xi Jinping.
While the Morrison government is still mostly in denial, climate change topped the list of "threats to our vital interests" in 2019, for the first time in the history of the poll. Other main threats were identified as cyber attacks, terrorism and North Korea's nuclear program. A further "inconvenient" finding for the government's climate "policy" is that more Australians want the government to reduce emissions than prevent blackouts or keep prices down, even though these latter issues have dominated our domestic media discussion.
Against the global trend towards increased nationalism, Australians remain firmly committed to free trade and globalisation. They also see New Zealand as our best "friend", and expressed more confidence in Jacinda Ardern to do the right thing in world affairs than any other leader identified.
Clearly, one of the biggest and most important challenges for the re-elected Morrison government is to delineate a clear view of our national interest, and detail the policies needed to achieve it.
The lack of focus and consistency in responses by our government should be of concern. The Chinese have been allowed to buy some of our important infrastructure - the Darwin port, the SA power distribution network, a renewables project, various key pieces of real estate, and so on, which we wouldn't be allowed to do in China, yet we baulk at their involvement in the 5G network, and their "debt trap diplomacy" in our island neighbours. A couple of their naval vessels were also allowed to visit Sydney recently, unannounced.
The lack of focus and consistency in responses by our government should be of concern.
Some of this has annoyed the US, so we are now supporting a new commercial port in Darwin that will undoubtedly be used by US troops in the future. We also "just go along with" US initiatives, in the name of the alliance, with inadequate consideration of our national interest. For example, we are currently rushing to support the US "coalition" against Iran, with echoes of our draining involvement in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. We have taken a reasonably strong position against the US/China trade war.
Australians are left to wonder about the government's "end game". The worst outcome could be that we essentially continue to be "bounced" back and forth between the US and China, from one initiative or event to another, without ever defining and fighting for our national interest.
This will not result in respect from either side, nor improve our standing with our Asia/Pacific neighbours. Indeed, we have a unique opportunity to play more of a balancing/leadership role in our region, standing on principle, while developing better regional relationships, not selling out to either major power.
- John Hewson is a professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, and a former Liberal opposition leader.
