Nobody, least of all Canberra's tens of thousands of public servants heading into Christmas amidst an atmosphere of increasing uncertainty and apprehension about what 2020 may bring, will have been surprised by the news APS redundancies are going to jump substantially between now and 2023.
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It was obvious, the moment the Prime Minister announced his recent decision to slash the number of departments from 18 to 14 and to axe five departmental secretaries, that substantial job cuts were in the offing.
Nobody, after all, would ever expect a restructure on this scale, the largest in a generation, to deliver an increased number of jobs at the end of the process.
The latest Treasury estimates and projections indicating provision is being made to increase redundancy expenditure across the APS from $55 million this fiscal year and $54 million in 2020-21 to $72 million in 2021-22; a massive 30 per cent escalation, come at a time when the projected budget surpluses over the corresponding period are being slashed.
It is estimated that a further $62 million, still well above the current level of expenditure on staff reductions, is to be spent on redundancies in 2022-23.
This year's surplus, originally estimated at being in excess of $7.1 billion, will now be lucky to reach $5 billion.
On the plus side, 2020 is not shaping up to be an "annus horribilis" for local APS staff in the immediate wake of the changes that are due to take effect from the start of February.
It would appear, given the level of redundancy spending is expected to remain steady for at least the next 12 months, that lip service will be paid to due process during the restructuring period.
It is to be sincerely hoped that proper consideration is given to determining the best possible efficiencies and synergies as departments are merged and that staff morale and welfare and the quality of customer service delivery and support are given due weight.
We stress this given the Coalition does not have a great track record in this area.
Recent decisions, including the highly political relocation of the APVMA to Armidale in northern NSW and the creation of the Department of Home Affairs, have not been implemented as effectively as they might have been.
While it is often tempting for governments, particularly those trying to balance budgets under deteriorating circumstances, to seize the lowest hanging fruit when it comes to up front cost savings this isn't always the most efficient approach.
It is tempting for governments trying to balance budgets under deteriorating circumstances to seize the lowest hanging fruit in up front cost savings.
One would hope the Coalition's recent experience with the "robo-debt" debacle, which may yet result in significant compensation and ongoing rectification costs, will encourage a more nuanced and tempered approach to reform moving forward.
That said, the real danger for Canberra in this process is that the initial claim that efficiency and effectiveness, not cost cutting, had prompted the restructure is starting to look a little like fake news.
The Morrison government now has both fiscal and ideological grounds to significantly reduce the number of APS staff within Canberra. It is their preferred site for reductions and cut backs for a variety of reasons.
One of these is there are few Coalition votes to lose here.
That is not so in regional Australia and other parts of the country where the government has been more than happy to move jobs from the ACT.
