Since we're all making end-of-the-decade lists, here's another for you. Only two movies in the last 10 years have won the best picture Oscar without also taking a screenplay honour - the mostly silent The Artist and Guillermo del Toro's fantasy film The Shape of Water, which was relegated to the Sunken Place by Jordan Peele's Get Out.
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And since just seven movies overall have won best picture without also at least earning a screenplay nomination (Titanic being the last), the writing categories could prove to be a crucial test for 2019 aspirants like 1917, Parasite and Ford v Ferrari.
Here's how they're shaping up as we close out the year.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
- Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
- Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
- Lulu Wang, The Farewell
- Rian Johnson, Knives Out
On the cusp: Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory; Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917; Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name; Jason Keller, Jez Butterworth and John-Henry Butterworth, Ford v Ferrari; Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins and Katie Silberman, Booksmart; Jordan Peele, Us.
Here you have an array of movies mounting robust Oscar campaigns - Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari - competing against critically acclaimed indies like Parasite and The Farewell, a commercial crowd-pleaser (Knives Out) and a movie that would have likely been a commercial crowd-pleaser (Dolemite) if it had been released by a studio other than Netflix.
Tarantino, Bong and perhaps Baumbach could also land nominations for director.
Wang deserves strong consideration too for The Farewell, a delightful, emotionally astute family story. And though writers' branch voters haven't been generous to international cinema of late, the Korean comedy thriller Parasite seems inevitable here as well for its brilliant structure and audacious melding of satire and heart-wrenching social commentary.
1917 also merits consideration for its structure and for the effective, restrained way it tells its story of two British soldiers embarking on an impossible mission.
But it's a little shy on its word count, and voters tend to gravitate toward screenplays packed with verbiage.
That bias could bode well for Johnson's wickedly entertaining Knives Out.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Steve Zaillian, The Irishman
- Greta Gerwig, Little Women
- Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
- Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
- Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker
On the cusp: Andrew Stanton and Stephany Folsom, Toy Story 4; Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood; Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy; Julius Onah and JC Lee, Luce; Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers.
The Irishman, Jojo, The Two Popes and Little Women seem fairly secure. By nominating Jojo Rabbit writers' branch voters would be showing their approval for Waititi's decision to add a bumbling Adolf Hitler as a comic foil. Even those possessing mixed feelings about the final product admire Waititi's audacity.
The final spot could go to the latest Toy Story movie.
Toy Story 3 earned a nomination nine years ago, and the fourth chapter managed to reinvent the franchise just enough to prove satisfying.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Joker are also possibilities, pitting sweetness against numbing cynicism.
Look for despair, by way of a billion-dollar worldwide gross, to prevail.
- McClatchy
