Canberrans could be trading ham for lobster this Christmas as bushfires and border closures send pork prices up, while trade tensions with China send seafood prices down.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
The price of a Christmas ham is up 11 per cent on last year while lobster has fallen by up to 27 per cent and could plummet further.
But despite the heavily disrupted year most Christmas food and drink favourites will be making it to the dinner table without incident.
Aaron Fenning, a butcher at Jordo's Chop Shop, said although demand for pork always soared at this time of year, lower than usual supplies this year meant prices were higher.
"With COVID-19 and all the crazy buying, the farmers sold as much [pork] as they could and it didn't leave much breeding stock on the ground," he said.
The most recent drought and last summer's bushfires had also contributed to an ongoing issue accessing feed, meaning many farmers were finding it too expensive to breed their livestock - or to continue farming at all.
"There's not much money in it for the farmer because of feed prices. It's pretty hard yakka being a pig farmer as it is already, so they're all pulling out," Mr Fenning said.
Traditionally the price of ham would drop by around $1.20 a kilogram just after Christmas. But last Christmas prices didn't drop at all, and were now $2 a kilogram up on last year.
Canberrans can expect to pay $19 a kilogram for ham, up from $17 a kilogram a year ago.
Mr Fenning said although they sold out of ham before Christmas almost every year, he and his staff had been "banking" legs of ham - half-preparing and freezing the product till later in the year - in much larger quantities to keep up with demand come December.
Fans of seafood on their Christmas table could expect the same last-minute price hikes seen every year, but supplies of oysters, prawns and other favourites would be bountiful, according to FishCo Fish Market's John Fragopoulos.
"There's only so much fish being caught and that fish on Christmas week will double its price, but we always make sure we secure enough stocks in order to see us through," he said.
And with seafood exports to China on indefinite hold, the price of lobster had plummeted and was expected to fall even further.
From last year's price of $110 a kilogram, Mr Fragopoulos expected locally caught lobster to fall to $80 a kilogram and Western Australian lobster to $75 a kilogram. He was already selling whole frozen lobsters - weighing in between 500 and 600 grams - for $35 a pop.
Mr Fragopoulos said customers should always ask their fishmonger to sample a prawn or oyster to ensure their quality before they bought their full haul for Christmas.
"If you walk into a fish shop anywhere and you say 'can I try a prawn' and they say 'no', walk away. Always try before you buy," he said.
Regional Wholesale Fruit Market's Demetri Stamatis said there were no supply issues expected in the run-in to Christmas but demand for avocados could mean prices climbing to $4 a piece.
Good weather in Queensland was translating to plentiful high-quality mangoes, but if stormy weather elsewhere in the country kept up the quality of cherries could be affected.
"But we've got no concerns with supply. We've got a very good network of farmers and agents and distributors that we work with so there will be nothing that is unavailable totally," Mr Stamatis said.
Capital Wines' Bill Mason said his stocks of sparkling wine - particularly the Christmas favourite sparkling shiraz - were still plentiful but many wineries were running out of whites due to the loss of their last vintage after the fires.
"It does depend on the individual winery and how much inventory they were carrying, but the way it works out is if you lose your 2020 harvest you lose your whites. Normally the impact of red wine supply won't be felt for another year," he said.
Because most wines were grown and produced locally and then sold directly to the customer, significant price hikes were rare.
Mr Mason said it was important to support local producers over the summer as many businesses had suffered due to COVID-19 restrictions.
"It's been a pretty tough year for the local wine industry and I think a lot of local wineries and cellar doors are appreciating the strong support that they're receiving from Canberra," he said.
