Australians are being told the rise of the "missile age" and the threat from China to the global rules based order in the Indo-Pacific is behind a radical "whole of nation" repositioning and speed up of the nation's defence forces.
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The declassified 110-page version of the Albanese government commissioned Defence Strategic Review released on Monday, states Australia's geographic protections as an island and conventional warning time for strategic thinking on major conflict cannot be relied on and it has issued an "urgent call to action".
The review, conducted by former chief of the Defence Force Angus Houston and former Labor defence minister Stephen Smith, has declared that China's military build-up is now the largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of the Second World War. It also states that this has happened alongside significant economic development that has benefited many countries in the Indo-Pacific, including Australia.
But the review, which has 62 declassified recommendations, states that China's build up is happening "without transparency or reassurance" to the Indo-Pacific region. The government has agreed or agreed to in principal to the public recommendations.
"China's assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea threatens the global rules based order in the Indo-Pacific in a way that adversely impacts Australia's national interests," the review states.
"China is also engaged in strategic competition in Australia's near neighbourhood. "
The review cites Alliance partner the United States as no longer the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific and the "intense" China-United States competition is the "defining feature of our region and our time."
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The review, which is being framed as one of the most significant examination and strategic re-prioritisation of the ADF in since the Second World War, has issues an "urgent call to action" over Australia's management of strategic risk. This includes the higher levels of military preparedness and accelerated capability development.
It finds Australia's post-Second World War protection by geography, and the limited ability of other nations in the region to project power, is rapidly and fundamentally changing.
Thanks to modern shifts such as the "missile age" - crystallised by the proliferation of long-range precision strike weapons - and cyber capabilities, the conventional 10-year warning time for defence and the nation is no more.
"In the contemporary strategic era, we cannot rely on geography and warning time," the review states.
"Emerging and disruptive technologies are being rapidly translated into military capability."
"While there is at present only a remote possibility of any power contemplating an invasion of our continent, the threat of the use of military force or coercion against Australia does not require invasion."
It finds that, due to the heightened risk, a more holistic approach to Australia's defence and security is needed.
Released just ahead of the May budget, the review calls for increased Defence spending and a move away from a business as usual approach to policy development, risk management and defence preparedness.
The shift reprioritises $7.8 billion in savings over the next four years. 21 projects are to be rescoped, six delayed and another six cancelled.
"For the first time in 80 years, we must go back to fundamentals," the review states.
The review proposes defence shifts from the current "Defence of Australia" doctrine, which focuses on the threat of low-level conflict from small to middle regional powers. It states this doctrine is no longer suitable.
The new proposition is a transition to "National Defence", a broader whole-of-government, whole-of-nation strategy which takes in the threat of major power competition, including the prospect of conflict.
This includes "much more active" statecraft and other forms of diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region, according to the review.
The classified version of the review, which contains certain secret assessments on China and scores more review recommendations, was handed to the Prime Minister two months ago, but the public version is now being released a day before Anzac Day.
Karen Barlow
Karen Barlow is ACM's Chief Political Correspondent. Working in the federal press gallery, she investigates and writes about federal politics and government. She has an interest in integrity, leadership and social equity. She has covered two Olympics and been to Antarctica twice. Contact her on karen.barlow@canberratimes.com.au
Karen Barlow is ACM's Chief Political Correspondent. Working in the federal press gallery, she investigates and writes about federal politics and government. She has an interest in integrity, leadership and social equity. She has covered two Olympics and been to Antarctica twice. Contact her on karen.barlow@canberratimes.com.au
