Randwick preview: Best tips and analysis for Saturday

Dangers: Where 2 Switzerland has drawn he's likely to be spotting Shangri La Express a couple of lengths head start. If he can still run him down he'll cement himself as a legitimate threat to Storm Boy come the Golden Slipper. The colt was afforded a perfect run on debut from a soft gate, allowing him to recover a spot after only being fairly away but he won with a leg in the air. He clocked the fastest closing splits of the entire Randwick meeting. Granted, it was the only 1000m race but he did that at his first race start. 4 Enriched matched motors with Shangri La Express in his latest trial so you can draw a straight line there. Gives away race experience. It's the same query with 8. Fly Fly but she has caught the eye in her two trials.

How To Play It: Shangri La Express WIN

8. Martial Music's both wins to date have been first up. His form tends to trail off thereafter. He pulled up slow to recover the last time we saw him at the races, hence fading late to finish last. That was nine weeks ago now. The four-year-old has trialled since and looked impressive winning his heat. First up last campaign the Anthony Cummings-trained speedster broke the track record at Kembla Grange over 1000m with a showing of sustained speed. He went straight to the front and just kept on running. He has had a few different jockeys throughout his career, Chad Schofield the latest but he got a feel for the gelding in his most recent trial. This doesn't look to be a deep Midway and a repeat of his fresh run last preparation, has him the horse to beat here.

Dangers: 4. Rebel Dean only has to hold his form to be in the finish again. He has hit a purple patch and has form around the right horses to win this. He ran consecutive fourths to Our Kobison and Tintookie before finding the line to run second at Canterbury. That was in an 1100m race that was won in fast time for the night. Can't see him regressing now. Can only run well. 11. Lady Shenanigans carries just 51.5kg after the claim of Jett Stanley. He comes through the same race as Rebel Dean and ran second to Lovero the start prior. Any rain around would be a bonus. 13. Mad Darcey produced a terrific turn of foot to put her rivals away at Gosford first up. Looks to have returned better than ever.

How To Play It: Martial Music WIN

Want to side with the proven Highway Handicap form. 10. Magic Pharoah had too much to do at Rosehill last start, drawing wide over 1500m. She finished better off better than her position suggests. With a clearer passage in the straight she finishes closer again. The lightly-raced four-year-old won a Highway over the mile at Randwick back in December before backing that up with a fast finishing third again over the Randwick mile. They are the only two times she has raced at the track. Last start she was four weeks between runs too. Imagine this has been a target race for Lou Mary. The daughter of American Pharoah still has to prove herself beyond the mile but the 1800m sets up nicely, as opposed to straight out to 2000m.

Dangers: 1. Fay's Angel comes through that same Highway a fortnight ago. She was tackling that first up so there is more to come from her. Like the way she closed off late over 1500m. There's good depth to her form last campaign and the trip holds absolutely no fears for her having won out to 2200m. She raced in an Oaks as a filly. 2. Lensman won that aforementioned Highway, and at big odds. That was on the back of a luckless run behind Bon Frankie. He has to tick off the 1800m box. 19. Reet Petite has her work cut out just making the field as the sixth emergency but respect her chances if she sneaks in. Like the form reference of a second to Acceber two runs back over 2000m. 5. Leica Storm next best.

How To Play It: Magic Pharoah WIN

8. Whinchat skips a couple of grades on Saturday but the dominance of his first up win says that he is up to the task. The four-year-old has been a work in progress for a while now, learning to harness his speed. He still wanted to race keenly a couple of weeks ago at the midweeks but he put nearly five lengths on his rivals, charging clear at the finish. He smashed the clock too. What we do know about this control freak is how dynamic he is when he can lead. He has led four times and won all four times. Significantly, he maps to find the front here as the only designated leader. Jay Ford maintains his association with Whinchat, which again looks noteworthy, as he is a horse still with a few quirks.

Dangers: It's been over a year now since 1. Cuban Royale has won but this is the weakest race he has contested since then. The evergreen nine-year-old flashed home into fifth in the Carrington Stakes behind Zou Tiger three weeks ago. The frantic tempo up front may have flattered backmarkers but his last 600m split was five lengths quicker than the next best. 9. Tashi knuckled down first up to beat Either Oar at Randwick first up. That was on the back of one trial. This is harder but she is a very genuine mare. 4. Meritable bounced back from a poor run second up to run Sneaky Paige to a narrow second at Rosehill. Out to 1300m looks perfect now.

How To Play It: Whinchat WIN

4. Buenos Noches is one of the best sprinters in the country. It's easy to forget that he has still only had 11 starts. He gave his rivals a touch up over this same track and trip first up last campaign, sweeping home to set up his preparation. That set up a tilt at The Everest. Before that he ran Private Eye to a narrow margin The Shorts, and was unlucky in defeat. Nothing went right for him in The Everest but he bounced back from that to give Imperatriz a fright in the VRC Stakes down the Flemington straight, with In Secret in third. His form lines speak for themselves. Like the way that he has trialled on two occasions and with 6. Malkovich in the race, that should at least guarantee enough speed for all runners to get their chance.

Dangers: 1. King Of Sparta has the advantage of being up and running against largely a field of first uppers. He was expected to win at the Gold Coast five weeks ago and he delivered. There is more depth here but he has trialled sweetly since and has been around the mark in similar races to this in the past. Won't want too much rain throughout the week. 3. Golden Mile will improve into his campaign over further but he maps to get the back of the leaders. Proved his quality at the backend of the spring. It's a similar case for 5. Strait Acer with the Doncaster a logical target for both of them. Strait Acer was the most improved horse in training last preparation, taking giant leaps. 2. Coal Crusher next best.

How To Play It: Buenos Noches WIN

It's hard to assess the chances of 5. Olentia without rewatching again and again what she did first up last campaign. It was an outstanding win. She settled out the back in a small field sizzling home to score an arrogant victory. The prompted Chris Waller to suggest that she is a Group One winner in waiting. It was hard to argue on the strength of that win, which was backed up on the clock. Her spring went pear-shaped after that win. She was posted three deep the trip second up before a run of wide gates saw her underperform. We got not guide on her ability towards the backend of the spring. Spell and start again. Tommy Berry rode her in both trials and he is with the mare first up. As impressive as 2. Semana was first up, Olentia is still the benchmark here.

Dangers: That's no knock on Semana going forward. She produced a career best at the Gold Coast second up, travelling wide throughout yet still exploding clear. That was on the back of a close up second behind Group One winner Royal Merchant at Wyong. She is a mare still spiralling upwards. 7. Penthouse was asked to step into Group company second up over 1200m after winning a Class 3 Highway Handicap three weeks earlier. She ran second but that says 1200m is fine going forward. She'll lead again for a long way here. Remains an underrated mare. Grahame Begg was happy to run 4. C'est Magique in the VRC Stakes before spelling. That speaks to the opinion he has of this mare. Respect the placement if the stable coming to Sydney first up. Has trialled and jumped out well.

How To Play It: Olentia WIN

8. Fangirl was breathtaking when winning the King Charles at Randwick over the spring. It surpassed anything she had done previously, touching up the likes of Mr Brightside. Turns out that she hadn't maxed out talent-wise. The arrogance of that win prompted Chris Waller to run in the Cox Plate where she was a heavily backed $6.50 chance. Luck deserted her in the straight, however. James McDonald has ridden the five-year-old five times for four wins. She comes to handy quickly, boasting a fantastic first up record and looks to have trialled as well as ever, trucking to the line. Maps to be giving a couple of her key rivals a head start but 5. Attractable should ensure a truly run race.

Dangers: 1. Think It Over wasn't far off Fangirl first up last campaign in the Winx Stakes, and he was 71 weeks between runs. That stamps him a genuine threat in itself. The eight-year-old win this race two years ago. Nash Rawiller's tactics could prove significant. There is a spot outside of the leader up for grabs. 10. Militarize improves off this ahead if his first autumn grand final, the Randwick Guineas, but he can't be too far off the mark with that only three weeks away. 2. Cascadian isn't getting any younger but he doesn't appear to be getting any slower either. It's a stretch to say that he can win first up but he'll be flashing home late and could get into the minors. 7. Lindermann resumes a gelding.

How To Play It: Fangirl WIN

7. Facile appeals at double figure odds. With the two favourites drawn wide and the Surround Stakes second up within their sights, doubt either will be dug up early to find a spot. Facile will make her own luck on top of the speed, potentially leading this field. She won't be easy to get past from that position. The Trapeze Artist filly hasn't done much wrong in her career, despite just the one win to her name. The last time we saw her at the races she pulled up lame. Perhaps the 1400m saw her out too. She was brilliant first up last campaign, albeit in BM68 grade over 1100m, but she beat Joliestar there and ran very fast time. As a two-year-old there was very little between her and 3. Learning To Fly. Well suited. Well set up. Takes catching.

Dangers: 1. Kimochi maps to tuck in behind the speed which gives her the chance to run a string of minor placings into another overdue win. It'd be deserving too. 2. Tiz Invincible had her measure in the Furious and Tea Rose over the spring but Kimochi covered ground in both. Tiz Invincible was the top seeded filly over the spring and if her trials are any guide, he looks to have returned better again. It's the barrier that poses the biggest obstacle. Learning To Fly resumes after 48 weeks on the sidelines having been nursed back to full health. She is completely untapped and she too has trialled exceptionally well. Again though, the barrier is tricky. 5. Kristilli was deceptively fast home first up against older horses. 4. Mumbai Muse has obvious claims.

How To Play It: Facile WIN

9. Miracle Spin easily accounted for 10. Louisville two starts ago. Not sure why there is such a big price discrepancy in early betting. The dominance of that win, over this same track and trip, saw Miracle Spin jump a firm favourite at Flemington thereafter. He didn't let down like we know he can. Hence Matt Smith has freshened up the five-year-old since then, impressing in a tickover trial over 1200m in open company. He steps up again in grade on Saturday but gets some weight relief. Wouldn't say this is any harder than the BM78s he has been running well in over the past two campaigns. From the draw Jay Ford will be forced to balance up in the second half of the field but if he gets a back to follow into the straight, he should be somewhere in the finish at double figure odds.

Dangers: 7. Redstone Well is ready to win. No doubt about that. He was horribly suited by a lack of speed in the race second up over the mile. In defeat behind Glory Daze he clocked the fourth fastest last 200m split all meeting. The knock is staying at 1600m. Would be very confident about his chances over 2000m but we'll have to wait until fourth up for that. 10. Louisville gave every indication that 2000m wouldn't be a problem but he had no excuses when third up Floating. Back to the mile looks okay. Gets blinkers first time 5. Estadio Mestalla scrambled home at Rosehill last start on the back up. It was a determined win. Well placed out to the mile now. 3. Logan Street Lion comes through that same race and was only first up. 15. Mahagoni would be a knockout chance on a soft track.

How To Play It: Miracle Spin EACH WAY

There are a couple of red flags when assessing the chances of 9. Thunderlips on Saturday, granted, but he finds a very winnable race. The three-year-old won at $17 at Warwick Farm not even two weeks ago. Now punters are being asked to back him as favourite in a better class of race. The son of Zoustar is also unproven at 1400m. However, he gives the impression that he is only now starting to put it all together. The Bjorn Baker stable have always held him in high regard. He ran in a deep race behind Caballus first up before bouncing off that to win dominantly at the midweeks. He'll ride the speed again from the inside draw, Dylan Gibbons sticks and he drops to 54kg. Still think he'll get back out late in betting having bottomed out now.

Dangers: 3. Gracilistyla has raced better at Rosehill in the past than Randwick, which has to be a query here. As does the fact that he hasn't won in 100 weeks. However, he comes off two placings in comparable races to this. Finds James McDonald. His turn is coming again soon, surely. Trainer Matt Smith has suggested that 8. Time Quest will improve with the run but this lightly-raced five-year-old is completely untapped. Beat Louisville to win his maiden. Any rain around would help having won so impressively on a heavy track in Melbourne. 5. Starman faces a tricky draw but he stuck on well despite travelling three wide the trip behind two subsequent winners in Amor Victorious and Estadio Mestalla three weeks ago. There doesn't appear to be a lot between him and Gracilistyla.

How To Play It: Thunderlips WIN