Simply reducing the number of pokies won't curb damage. Here's why

Gambling is related to financial disaster, family breakdown and divorce, domestic violence, other crime, imprisonment, homelessness, loss of employment, poor physical and mental health, and suicide. A recent study, using Victorian coroners' data, identified 4.2 per cent of suicides in that state as gambling-related. It's almost certainly an underestimate.

Despite the opposition from the gambling industry, progress has been made in identifying and implementing interventions to reduce this harm. These include requiring people who wish to gamble to register and use a card when they do so, to limit losses; and reducing access to gambling opportunities.

The Victorian and Tasmanian governments have announced plans to implement pre-commitment systems which require people who want to use pokies to register for a card to insert in the machine when they gamble on a machine.

In Tasmania, limits are set at $100 per day, $500 per month, and $5000 per year. Before the last NSW election, the then-government announced a similar plan.

In all Australian states and territories (except the ACT), pokies are networked through a monitoring system. This allows accurate accounting of losses, as well as real-time reports on machine 'performance'. When used as part of a pre-commitment system, it means no more gambling can occur once the limit is reached.

Pre-commitment has been in place in Norway since 2009. It has also been introduced in slightly different forms in Germany, Sweden and Finland. The effect has been to reduce total gambling losses, and thus harm.

Reducing the availability of pokies as a harm-prevention and minimisation intervention has also been proposed for many years. There is some evidence to support its effectiveness.

Pandemic restrictions reduced pokies losses dramatically in Australia. Some substitution occurred via online gambling, but much less than the reduction in pokies losses.

A recent study identified the rate of gambling problems in Western Australia is about half that in the rest of the country. That's because there are no pokies in WA outside the Perth casino.

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Research on reductions of slot machine availability and losses in Finland and Italy demonstrate reducing machine numbers has some benefits. However, to be effective, reductions must be very deep. In Italy a reduction of 30 per cent in the number of machines translated into a six per cent decline in expenditure.

Even a reduction of half the available machines would not result in substantial reductions in losses and harm.

This is also true in Australia.

In Victoria, an evaluation of regional caps on pokie numbers (intended to reduce the number of pokies in disadvantaged areas) found little, if any, effect.

Reducing the number of machines incrementally simply means the ones left are utilised more.

Any reduction scheme that seeks to have a serious impact on gambling harm would need to involve major cuts, if not abolition.

These options certainly provide a solution to gambling harm, but come with the certainty of serious opposition from the gambling industry, including well-resourced and powerful players from outside the ACT.

At the 2018 election, the Tasmanian ALP proposed to abolish pokies. They were soundly defeated, largely by the very well-resourced national pokies lobby. Few politicians would care to repeat that experience.

The ready availability of pokies in locations around the ACT's borders also means pokies operated under NSW's rather loose regulations are readily accessible.

This does not mean the ACT should be influenced by the policies of Australia's most pokie-captured state.

But it does suggest making the ACT's machines less harmful may be a much more effective way of preventing or minimising harm.

The established way to implement a pre-commitment system involves installation of a monitoring system. It comes with a hefty price tag, which the pokies lobby will also resist.

Nonetheless, pre-commitment is now the most likely and effective way to give people a tool to limit gambling losses and harm, as the Productivity Commission recommended in 2010. It has been demonstrated as effective in multiple jurisdictions, and is highly feasible technically. As demonstrated in Victoria and

Tasmania, it is also now politically feasible.

Pre-commitment means that pokie operators maintain a proportion of the pokies' revenue stream. However, the super profits from gambling addiction will be diminished. This also provides an incentive to diversify their entertainment offer.

The ACT sees itself as a leader among Australian jurisdictions, and in many ways it is. Getting pokie harm under control would represent a shining example of this leadership.