Joe Biden went to Kiev on Monday with offers of assistance for Ukraine's faltering economy and for talks with senior political figures. With the country's east beset by confrontations between pro-Russian groups and supporters of the new government in Kiev, the visit was intended to shore up the diplomatic settlement reached in Geneva last Thursday aimed at averting a wider conflict. Instead it seems to have inflamed tensions. Even before the US Vice-President had arrived in Kiev, a shootout near the town of Slavyansk in the Donetsk region in Ukraine's east left three pro-Russian protesters dead, and shortly after, gunmen in the town proper detained a female journalist, allegedly on the pretext of investigating whether she had committed ''war crimes''.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
It is possible Mr Biden's visit was not the trigger for the incidents in Slavyansk since the pro-Russian militants who control it and other towns in Ukraine's east had refused at the outset to abide by the accord. However, few observers would rule it out as a coincidence in this high-stakes drama in which Russian President Vladimir Putin has played a faultless (if crafty) hand in his self-appointed role as protector of the Russian-speaking peoples against the malign intentions of the West. In so doing, Mr Putin has illegally annexed Ukrainian territory (an appropriation ''legalised'' ex-post facto by a quick and dirty referendum), denounced the West for its hypocrisy in refusing to recognise Crimea's unilateral wish to become part of Russia again, and encouraged insurrection in other towns and territories dominated by Russian-speaking Ukrainians. So effective has this rhetoric been that separatists plan to hold a referendum on May 11 on the status of the Donbas, the heavily industrialised region encompassing the city of Donetzk and home to about 7 million people.
There seems little doubt that Mr Putin has been motivated in part by a wish to expand Russian territories shrunk by the divestiture of some of the old republics after the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991 and to avenge old slights against West. Principal among these was the United States' support of Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence in 2008 – in defiance of Moscow's strong but ultimately futile opposition. However, the primary impulse appears to have been the conviction held by Mr Putin that Ukraine is gravitating out of Russia's orbit and towards that of the European Union. It's a well-founded suspicion.
Though Ukraine declared its independence before the USSR was officially dissolved, Russia has always regarded it as coming within its own sphere of influence – a paternalism born not just of ethnic ties but of strategic considerations as well. If Moscow was unhappy about former satellites like Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania becoming members of NATO, it was largely powerless to prevent them. The idea that Ukraine might at some point move to join NATO is something that Moscow has always strongly rejected. Such a development was always considered remote with pro-Russian governments ruling in Kiev. However, with the overthrow of former Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych in February – a development endorsed by the US and the European Union as ''good for democracy'' – Moscow's anti-West rhetoric has ratcheted up in intensity, supported by some deft rabble-rousing by Mr Putin and the deployment of at least 40,000 troops along the Ukraine-Russia border.
th century fashion with regards to the annexation of Crimea'', but such tactics appear to have paid off handsomely for Moscow, at least in the short term. There is no appetite in the West for confronting Mr Putin – beyond the imposition of economic sanctions – and this back-down will probably ensure no future government in Kiev risks seeking closer economic or strategic ties with the EU.
There remains a potential downside for Mr Putin, however. Having set a precedent for state-sponsored separatism in Crimea, he could well discover minorities in other parts of the Russian Federation pressing claims of their own. And if separatists in Ukraine were to overstep, there is a risk the country might break in two, leading to the establishment of a pro-Western neighbour on Russia’s doorstep. Adroit as he is with his divide and conquer strategy, Mr Putin needs to refrain from further demagoguery.
