Two resignations, one sacking, the GST off the table and a front bench reshuffle – it's been a difficult week for Malcolm Turnbull and his Coalition team.
But Mr Turnbull is not the only political leader under pressure; he enjoys a commanding lead in the opinion polls over Labor leader Bill Shorten, and that fact has not escaped the notice of opposition MPs.
Fairfax Media spoke to a dozen Labor MPs this week to gauge the mood of the federal caucus about the opposition leader and the party's chances in the 2016 election year.
Labor currently hold 55 seats in the lower house, compared to the federal government's 90 seats, and 11 of those Labor seats are held by margins of less than 3 per cent.
Even as Mr Shorten addressed the NSW Labor party conference on Saturday and unveiled an ambitious plan to curb negative gearing, the opposition's election prospects was tipped as a talking point.
As one federal MP put it, "it's the thing everyone will be gossiping about. 'How's it going in your electorate?' is how people put it. It's tough out there at the moment".
"I think it will tighten up but we are not where we were nine months ago against Tony Abbott. And if people get the sense we could go backwards in a significant way, that could trigger something".
Other federal MPs were similarly downbeat.
"No one is saying he [Mr Shorten] is dead yet, but everyone is talking about it. The NSW Right [faction] has given up on him but they will not move as they do not want to be responsible for tearing down a Victorian," as one MP puts it.
"If the Victorian Right moves he is dead, and Bill is very aware of that. No one thinks he can win [the election], the question is how far backward we could go."
Mr Shorten's powerbase is the Victorian Right faction, populated by powerbrokers such as Senator Stephen Conroy and MP Dave Feeney.
The opposition leader also enjoys the support of the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees union, which has a significant bloc of federal MPs, and the support of Victorian Left power broker Kim Carr.
And he has his defenders in the caucus, too, who argue Mr Shorten has not received the credit he deserves for his hard work in the last two and a half years.
"Bill keeps getting written off but he keeps bashing away. He told caucus this week that politics is not about one big hit, it's about winning a series of small battles and he's right," a supportive MP said."I don't know what the future holds but we have gotten rid of one prime minister and 11 other ministers so far.Bill did well in question time this week and I think it's going pretty well for us. Turnbull's popularity is superficial."
A member of the shadow cabinet is blunt: "Bill will lead us to the next election. Getting rid of leaders in the past was a big mistake, there will not be a leadership change".
While the Victorian Right is ascendant at the moment, it is the NSW Right that, historically, sees itself as the "king making" faction.
Burned by previous leadership changes federally and in NSW and accusations of a "coup culture", the influential NSW Right is, at this stage, unlikely to make a move on Mr Shorten.
But if the opposition leader cannot lift his standing in the polls in the coming months - especially now that the government appears to have walked away from the prospect of a GST rise, denying Labor a potent cost of living scare campaign, and after a series of ministerial scandals, that could change.
Labor Left MP Anthony Albanese, who soundly beat Mr Shorten in the popular vote for leader in 2013 but lost the caucus vote, is seen by most MPs as almost certain to take over after the next election.
That could be brought forward but Mr Albanese, who has a history of not undermining leaders, will not move on Mr Shorten.
Deputy leader Tanya Plibersek and treasury spokesman Chris Bowen, from the NSW Left and NSW Right respectively, have fans but neither is seen as ready to take over.
Government MPs, meanwhile, say they are already factoring in a switch to Mr Albanese.
Labor MPs are nervous about their election prospects as Mr Turnbull enjoys an extended honeymoon with voters.
Mr Shorten will need to take more risks as the election draws near.
But the opposition leader's future is in his hands, at least for now.
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