Emmy Yager has been a resident of Isabella Plains for almost two decades and of Tuggeranong since the age of four. Despite the area's "beauty," she feels its "losing its soul" through a lack of community, safety and quality education.

"It's disheartening, because when we moved here there were high hopes and it was a very family-friendly area, but now – having a one year old – I don't even feel safe taking her to the park," she said.

She noticed significant change over the past five years, about the same period Tuggeranong was the only ACT area declining in population.

Its future looks bleak if the population decline continues against Gungahlin's booming growth.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures from the year 2013-14 placed Kambah last in attracting existing Canberrans, with a net loss of 271 peCanberra is witnessing the death of its original "nappy valley" as mums and dads pack up their strollers to abandon Tuggeranong. ople, while Gungahlin's Crace won with a net gain of 774 locals.

Across the ACT, Tuggeranong sustained the most net losses among children (414), teens and young adults (601), middle-aged to older residents (475) and the territory's oldest (63).

Tuggeranong Community Council president Glenys Patulny blames this on the first home owner grant "where young people can only buy new houses, whereas homes around here are pre-existing".

But she said a proposed new retirement village in Kambah, multi-storey dwellings planned for Athllon Drive, public housing at Monash, and Tuggeranong CIT should boost the region.

The Southquay development will bring an extra 1000 homes and 3000 square metres of commercial space to the Lake Tuggeranong Foreshore, but Liberal senator Zed Seselja believes it's "quite late to the piece".

"For a long time the government was building townhouses at the town centre instead of that higher density – like Southquay – so there are more fundamental questions about how Tuggeranong is planned that's holding it back," he said.

Moving forward requires action form the private sector, according to Hamish Sinclair from the University of Canberra's Faculty of Business and Government.

"It's about localised people in their local community and giving a reason to go to Tuggeranong."

He suggested building an evening market around the town centre, because Southquay's commercial space is "too far from the Hyperdome".

But demand is needed to expand the commercial economy, and thus the circle continues, he explained.

"Whether it's a causal factor of lack of economic development in the South or whether the lack of economic development in the South is a result of people leaving is a chicken and egg scenario."

Meanwhile, prosperous Gungahlin has homed an extra 2981 people since last stocktake.

And according to projections, its population is soaring. The ACT government predicted growth across Gungahlin-Hall in the range of 20,500 people, a massive 58.6 per cent of the city's total growth between 2007 to 2019.

"What we've been fighting for over the years is making sure we have all the services and amenities that are consummate with the growing population," said Gungahlin Community Council president Ewan Brown.

"We've got five major road upgrades, we fought strongly for a pool, oval [and] we've been trying to get a cinema.''

Everything to make a "complete satellite community".

But the light rail project could become a double-edged sword, improving access but not employment.

"We don't want light rail to be a one-way journey, taking people out of Gungahlin during the day and bringing them back at night … [we need] more employment in the area."

With long-term residents leaving the so-called dying district of Tuggeranong while Gungahlin prospers, the North-versus-South divide seems clearer than ever.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said the proposed retirement village was on Hindmarsh Drive.