The government has shifted its language on the cost of the light rail project, now suggesting the original price tag of $614 million should be adjusted for the year the tram begins operating, in 2019.
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If inflation runs at 3 per cent a year from now, the construction cost would be over $760 million.
The government has refused to release updated costings on the light rail project, saying it does not want to prejudice the outcome of negotiations with a private sector partner to build and operate the tram line.
But asked in August about suggestions it could top $800 million, Chief Minister Katy Gallagher said Cabinet's tolerance was $614 million, the figure it used in 2011, adjusted for 2014 dollars.
Yesterday, Capital Metro Minister Simon Corbell, who has the final business case and a cost estimate in hand, said the adjustment would be for the date of operation, rather than 2014 dollars. Construction is due to start on the rail line in 2016 and finish in 2019.
He denied any shift in language.
"We're saying in adjusted terms and the Chief Minister said in adjusted terms, so nothing's changed in terms of the government's position on that," he said.
What Ms Gallagher said in June was "Cabinet's tolerance is in that order [the 2011 figure of $614 million], updated for 2014 dollars".
She repeated the suggestion the following day, saying, "This project could be and should be delivered within the original budget, the draft figure that was allocated in 2011, updated for 2014 figures". Asked whether that meant a cost of about $700 million, she said "certainly that's the figure that cabinet is working on for the original stage 1", while pointing out that the figure applied to the 12-kilometre line from Gungahlin to the city, but it might be extended to Russell, which would increase the cost.
The amount doesn't include work that is already happening to look for lines and pipes under Northbourne Avenue and upgrade intersections in Dickson and in the Gungahlin corridor. Nor does it include $23 million in this year's budget and the money spent in previous budgets on the Capital Metro agency and its consultants.
Under the government's plan to fund the project, it will in any case not pay the construction cost directly. Rather, it will pay an annual amount over 20 or 30 years to the private sector partner it contracts to build, own and operate the line.
But Mr Corbell said the government would provide an updated construction figure, which would apply from the beginning of operations, when the government began making payments.
"The cost ... will be the cost when the government starts paying for the process so it's reasonable to adjust it on that basis" he said. "There's no point in having an adjusted figure if it's going to be adjusted further when the government starts making payments."
Liberal transport spokesman Alistair Coe is using a figure of $805 million, based on an inflation adjustment of 2.75 per cent a year from 2011 to 2021, when he said construction would be completed.
But Mr Corbell said that was "well and truly over and above what we're anticipating".
Asked about the uncertainty over the cost of the project, he said "There's a lot of speculation. The government's been very clear from day one. We will release the details of the business case including revised and and updated capital figures once we've made a decision on it."
