Clive Palmer’s business acumen and net worth may be a matter of some dispute, but if the results of Saturday’s WA Senate election are an accurate gauge he possesses a shrewd political mind. Following some artful political rhetoric about securing West Australians a bigger slice of the GST pie – and a promotional campaign reputed to have cost the Queensland businessman between $3 million and $5 million – the Palmer United Party secured 12.49 per cent of the vote on Saturday. That was more than double what it received seven months ago, enabling its candidate, Zhenya Wang, to claim the fifth WA Senate seat.
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With four PUP senators now due to begin six-year terms from July 1, Mr Palmer seems to have the Coalition government’s future legislative plans – which include the repeal of the carbon and mining taxes and the introduction of a paid parental leave scheme – in the palm of his hand. The election's other notable achiever was Scott Ludlum, who struggled to hold his seat in September but was easily re-elected on Saturday after the Greens polled 16 per cent of the vote. The Greens got only 9 per in September, and that dramatic improvement is being interpreted by some as a sign that the party is now clear of the electoral doldrums in which it found itself last year as a result of its close association with the unpopular Gillard government.
For the Coalition, the results of the re-election were mixed. There was a swing against it of 5.49 per cent, although Liberal candidates still managed to win two of the four spots. The party’s No 3 candidate, Linda Reynolds, is still strongly in the running to win the sixth and last place.
For Labor, which won just one seat in September and looks like repeating that dismal performance – but with a swing against it of 4.83 per cent – the election was little short of disastrous. The party’s electoral prospects were undoubtedly damaged by revelations last week that its No. 1 Senate candidate, unionist Joe Bullock, had made slighting remarks about rank and file members at public function last November. But nothing can paper over the party’s deep-seated and enduring unpopularity in WA. Federal leader Bill Shorten’s failure to revive the party’s electoral appeal, despite significant time spent campaigning in Perth, will do nothing for his authority. What seems certain is that calls for fundamental reforms of the party’s internal structures, including membership and voting processes, will increase as a result. Mr Shorten has already canvassed changes, though without any noticeable zeal or enthusiasm. Were he minded to, Mr Shorten could easily cite Saturday’s result (and the perception that the party’s Senate ticket was a union stitch-up) as reasons to push harder to dilute union influence. Clear though the message was that WA voters sent Labor on Saturday, there is no certainty Mr Shorten, who has himself benefited from union wheeling and dealing, will grasp the nettle.
The Prime Minister too faces some potentially unpleasant options come July: meet Mr Palmer’s demands halfway or risk the PUP blocking key Coalition promises. Not much, ideologically speaking, would seem to separate the two men. But the Queenslander’s mercurial nature and unorthodox views suggest negotiations could be tricky. Abbott’s pointed comments last week accusing Mr Palmer of buying seats will not be an ideal basis for co-operation either. PUP’s desire to abolish the carbon and mining taxes is on the record, but so too is its opposition to Mr Abbott’s signature paid parental leave scheme. Businessman that he is, Mr Palmer has already spelt out that there will be a price for his support. What that might be, however, remains unclear, although many suspect that a desire to further his business and commercial interests will figure at some point. Doing that while avoiding perceptions of a conflict of interest will not be easy, however. Nor will keeping his fledgling party in line. That rarest of electoral contests – a re-run of a Senate vote – has opened the way to an intriguing new chapter in Australian politics.