Young people are walking away from the Murray-Darling Basin at nearly twice the rate of other rural and regional areas of Australia and Jarrod Deaton is not surprised.
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The Canberra cafe owner left the Murrumbidgee town of Leeton as soon as he graduated from high school 12 years ago, and hasn't looked back.
A new study by the University of Canberra, released on Wednesday, shows long-term uncertainty around water reform might be to blame for the basin losing 10 per cent of its young people between 2006 and 2011.
Academics have begun to map the migrations of people moving into, out of and around the vast area that stretches from central Queensland down to South Australia.
It is the first tranche of a $13.8 million research project, the Murray-Darling Basin future initiative, that will eventually involve four universities and aims to build a detailed social and economic picture of the basin and its 2 million people. The researchers found that more than 23,000, or 10 per cent, of the basin's young people left between 2006 and 2011, according to census data, compared to about 6 per cent for other rural areas.
Mr Deaton, who owns the Two before Ten cafe in Civic, said for many basin children, the attractions of the city proved hard to resist.
''In Leeton, you can't go out to the theatre, you can't go and watch top-level sport, a lot of the things that I enjoy doing,'' the 29-year-old said.
''To do farming, it's a tough slog now and I really question why some people do it sometimes, and in really rural areas, it must be a tough decision as a young kid with the world so open now.''
University of Canberra academic Helen Berry, who led the research with her colleague Rebecca Cassells, said communities in the basin were facing high levels of uncertainty.
''A high dollar, low commodity prices, droughts and floods have impacted many farming communities and many are unsure as to what effect new water reforms may have on their livelihoods,'' she said.
''Whether to stay where they are, move elsewhere in the basin or leave the basin completely are choices facing many.
''We are trying to map out the reasons behind these choices and gain a greater insight into the decision process underlying whether to stay or go.''
Professor Berry said the initial findings on the migration of the young people from the Basin were striking.
''What we've started to find out is that young people, particularly in that 18 to 25 age group, the early working-life period, there's a drain out of the basin,'' she said.
''There are a lot more people leaving the basin than there are leaving other rural areas around Australia.
''We're intrigued that they're leaving at such a high rate compared to the rest of the country.
''So we'll be asking if this is all about water or is there something else going on there?''