The dreaded "curve" that has dominated Australian lives for weeks has virtually flatlined as the number of new infections has plunged.

There is even talk that COVID-19 might be eradicated from the country.

In less than a month the number of confirmed new cases has dropped from a peak of 460 a day to just 13 in the 24 hours to Friday morning.

While there remain nagging doubts that there may be unidentified infections lurking in the community, the result is resounding proof that social distancing and the shutdown of large parts of the economy works.

In the absence of a vaccine or proven treatments (aside from ventilators) it is the best weapon we have against the virus's spread.

But the cost has been enormous.

In a stark summation of the economic toll, Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe said the economy was likely to shrink by 10 per cent in the first half of the year while the number of hours worked would plunge by 20 per cent.

These are, Dr Lowe said, the worst such results since the 1930s when the country was being ravaged by the Great Depression.

In addition to the 78 people (as of Friday) who have lost their lives to the virus, it is set to claim hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of livelihoods.

Virgin Australia became the largest corporate casualty when it was forced into voluntary administration, crushed by a combination of $5.3 billion of debt and a collapsing travel market.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirmed that more than 500,000 have lodged JobSeeker applications since mid-March, and in the past six weeks the government has processed as many claims as it normally would in a year.

Income for hundreds of thousands of households has been crunched. In the three weeks to April 4 alone, total wages paid by employers plummeted by 6.7 per cent.

Little wonder that workers and businesses are increasingly chafing under the restrictions imposed to slow COVID-19's spread.

Deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly has acknowledged the heavy cost on people's lives.

"It's very important, whilst we're concentrating on this pandemic and its response, that we don't get too narrow [about the] health effects," Professor Kelly said.

Social distancing clearly had detrimental affects on physical and mental health and "we need to consider whether our response is proportionate to the problem we're trying to deal with", he said.

So the relief was palpable on Tuesday when national cabinet took the first concrete step to ease up on the pressure, allowing elective medical procedures including IVF, joint replacement, eye operations, colonoscopies and cancer screening to resume from April 27.

May 11 is shaping as the next key date when crucial national cabinet decisions about easing social distancing restrictions may be made.

In an upbeat assessment of the country's progress, Mr Morrison said, "we are already on the road back and I think we have already reached a turning point on these issues".

But with the welcome news came a hefty dollop of caution.

Further easing, the prime minister warned, would be contingent on staying "on top of" the virus.

In the absence of a vaccine this means more extensive testing, an enhanced ability to identify and isolate disease hot spots and significant adoption of a contact tracing app which could be released by the government as soon as this weekend.

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On each of these fronts, progress is being made.

The slowdown in infections and an increase in the supply of testing kits has enabled jurisdictions like the ACT to expand testing criteria to include people showing COVID-like symptoms and random sampling.

Australia has one of the world's most intensive testing regimes, conducting around 1800 tests per 100,000 and almost 467,000 have been conducted since the outbreak began.

Pressure on medical supplies is also easing. Health Minister Greg Hunt said a supply of 60 million face masks had been "secured" and a further 100 million were due to arrive in the next six weeks, while the nation now had 7500 ventilators.

So what will the path out of the shutdown look like?

One thing is clear. It will be gradual.

The nightmare scenario for the nation's political leaders is for Australia to fall into Singapore's trap. The island state had been one of the early success stories in squashing COVID's spread, only to see a surge in infections when restrictions were eased, necessitating a second lockdown.

Mr Morrison said reopening schools was at the top of his wish list, though that is a decision for state and territory governments.

The National Rugby League, meanwhile, has been running a high profile campaign to restart matches on May 28.

The Prime Minister is pleading for patience, but chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told a Senate hearing that with an enhanced ability to screen and quickly isolate and control any outbreaks it was reasonable to consider, in about three weeks, allowing more shops to open and some community sport to re-start.

"In about three weeks time the national cabinet will be seeking further advice that we are screening broadly across the country, we can pick any new outbreak very quickly, and we have the response capacity in our state and territory public health units to very quickly isolate, quarantine and control an outbreak," Professor Murphy said.

"We certainly would not be contemplating large-scale gatherings, but certainly some relaxation of the size of small groups is possible. There are a range of measures they have asked us to consider: things like community sport and some retail measures."

University of Queensland economist John Quiggin said the government should contemplate relaxing restrictions on gatherings involving modest numbers of family and friends, such as funerals and weddings, and Queensland has increased the the number who can attend a funeral to 20.

National Australia Bank chief economist Alan Oster said one option would be to lift restrictions in a small jurisdiction like the ACT and see what happened before moving to ease constraints elsewhere.

Such an approach appears unlikely, not least because the characteristics of the outbreak in each state and territory have been different. It would be difficult to generalise from the experiences of one to the others.

Construction, manufacturing and agriculture have been identified as sectors likely to be among the first to have restrictions eased but those that have been hardest hit - hospitality, personal services, live entertainment, parts of retail and tourism - appear set to face restrictions for a considerable time yet.

The outlook is particularly grim for universities and international tourism operators. Professor Murphy was adamant on Thursday that, given the extent of coronavirus infections offshore, as discussion on winding back severe controls on overseas travel was still three or four months off.

However restrictions are eased, a rapid economic rebounds seems unlikely.

Grattan Institute household finance director Brendan Coates warned not to expect a V-shaped recovery.

A global recession, persistent unemployment and debt-laden households and businesses would weigh on activity for a considerable time ahead.

Dr Lowe is more upbeat.

The Reserve Bank governor said that if most restrictions were lifted by late this year the economy would grow "very strongly" in 2021, and might expand by up to 7 per cent.

At this stage, it will have to do so without the income support from the JobKeeper program, which is due to expire in September.

While the government may stick to this timetable, economists think it will need to replace it with something almost as expansive if the economy is to rebound.

Dr Lowe is among those who reckon there will also need to be significant economic reform.

He nominated income, consumption and land taxation, infrastructure, training, regulation and industrial relations as matters that should be at the top of the nation's agenda.

The government, which already has tax personal and small business tax cuts legislated, has flagged interest in extending tax cuts to big business and overhauling the industrial relations system.

This dovetails with the agenda of the Business Council of Australia, which is also calling for regulatory relief and improved training.

BCA chief executive Jennifer Westacott said the country needed a "pro-growth" agenda.

"Whether it's getting our skills system working properly, getting rid of regulation, making our tax system more competitive [or] getting those major projects powering up our economy. Those are the things that have to be in a reform agenda that drives business growth," she said.

But Labor's treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers said rather than an "obsession" with IR, the government should embrace a broader reform agenda headed by energy policy.

"If we want to build a modern economy with good, well-paid jobs then we've got to get the energy mix right. We need cheaper, cleaner energy," he said.

The government wants the goodwill and cooperation shown by national cabinet, business and unions in the virus fight to extend to the reform agenda.

The signs aren't promising. Easier to slay a virus than to fix an economy, it seems.