Things are looking pretty bleak right now and it is understandable to be anxious. One thing that is clear however, is that just like epidemiologists have been saying for decades and just like Hollywood script writers had been fictionalising, we find ourselves stricken by a frightening global pandemic. In a scenario that is almost a cliché, this pandemic has been caused by a bat virus that has mutated.
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Could this, the most serious global health crisis in more than 100 years, threaten the existence of the human race? While we have a long way to go, thankfully the answer is a definite no. Despite the gravity of our current predicament, there are many reasons for optimism in our fight against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. And if you can believe it, things could be much worse.
Whilst the SARS-CoV-2 virus does stand above previous pandemic threats, it is not even in the ballpark of being among the most infectious diseases the human race has seen (such as measles) nor the deadliest (such as ebola).
An apocalyptic end-of-the-world virus would spread much more rapidly and would be much more deadly. Furthermore, unlike this virus, which targets more vulnerable groups, an end-of-the world virus would be far less discriminating. It would affect the healthy, young and fit with as much force as it affects others.
We are favoured by the fact that we largely understand the transmission characteristics of this virus and we know that it is only spread by humans and, importantly, predominantly by close contact. This means we can employ tried and tested public health control methods. These include isolating cases and quarantining close contacts, social distancing, increased hand hygiene and wearing masks. These simple methods have a powerful effect if practised diligently enough, for long enough.
Also in our favour is that it's likely the virus will mutate towards a less deadly form. A less deadly viral strain, being able to spread more rapidly by not killing the host, will have a survival advantage over its more deadly antecedent. Thus, in the long term, there is the possibility that this virus may evolve into a form that we are more able to live with, much like we live with the common cold.
Finally, optimism comes from the fact that humans are revealing their best qualities under adversity. Individuals have shown amazing adaptability to protect themselves and others. Never before have we seen the cooperation that is occurring between governments, universities, pharmaceutical industries, and other organisations to develop new treatments. Hopefully, an eventual vaccine will be a game-changer.
So even though there are millions already infected, hundreds of thousands dying and economies threatened, you can be rest assured that we will win this fight.
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