A "gas-led recovery" is laughable. Fossil gas is dirty and expensive. We don't need gas.
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Canberra is leading the way to getting rid of fossil gas. The new agreement between Labor and the Greens ACT specifies that new gas mains connections will be stopped and that fossil gas will be phased out by 2045. Instead, people will be encouraged to go all-electric in the knowledge that the ACT electricity system is already decarbonised. This was achieved through contracting enough wind and solar farms to offset the ACT's entire electricity emissions.
Electric reverse-cycle air-conditioning can heat and cool buildings and electric heat pumps can make hot water in a storage tank. Roof-mounted solar panels can provide the electricity to run the heating at low cost.
When gas burns it releases carbon dioxide. When it leaks it releases methane, which is a far worse than greenhouse gas. Whether gas is as bad as coal, or slightly better, depends on the leakage rate. It's much worse for the environment than solar or wind.
The Australian electricity system is rapidly being decarbonised. Solar and wind provide 20 per cent of total electricity generation in the National Electricity Market and are tracking towards 50 per cent in 2026. In contrast, fossil gas is generating only 8 per cent of the electricity.
Tasmania (100 per cent hydro and wind) and South Australia (60 per cent wind and solar) have lower wholesale electricity prices than the other states. More renewable electricity is correlated with lower prices. Reducing emissions by deploying more solar and wind is costing less than zero.
The future for gas in Australia is dim. Solar and wind are squeezing gas out of electricity generation not just on the east coast but also in Perth, Darwin, the Pilbara and other mining areas. Electric heat pumps will push gas out of air and water heating in buildings. Soon, solar and wind will directly compete with gas for industrial heating. Meanwhile, electric vehicles will push oil out of transport.
Solar and wind constitute two-thirds of net global annual generation capacity additions. In Australia, solar and wind constitute 99 per cent of new generation capacity - because they are cheap. Our deployment rate of new renewables is four times faster per capita than in Europe, China, Japan or the USA.
Most emissions arise from gas, oil and coal. Electrification of all energy services using solar and wind eliminates 85 per cent of Australian emissions.
Our trading partners China, Europe, Japan and Korea have committed to zero emissions by 2050/60. A Biden administration in the USA will probably do likewise and the rest of the world will fall in line. The sooner we recognise that fossil fuels are going the same way as that other dirty and dangerous smoking industry, cigarettes, the better.
- Read Professor Blakers' story in Ten Journeys on a Fragile Planet. Out now, Odyssey Books.
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