The good news is that scientists have a better handle on asteroid Bennu's whereabouts for the next 200 years. The bad news is the space rock has a slightly greater chance of clobbering earth than previously thought.
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But don't be alarmed: scientists say the odds are still quite low that Bennu will hit us in the next century.
"We shouldn't be worried about it too much," said Davide Farnocchia, a scientist with NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, who served as the study's lead author.
While the odds of a strike have risen from one in 2700 to one in 1750 during the next century or two, scientists now have a much better idea of Bennu's path thanks to NASA's Osiris-Rex spacecraft.
The spacecraft is headed back to earth after collecting samples from the 500-metre wide asteroid, which is considered one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system. The samples are due here in 2023.
The spacecraft collected enough data over two-and-a-half years to help scientists better predict the asteroid's orbital path.
Their findings, published in the journal Icarus, should also help in charting the course of other asteroids.
Before Osiris-Rex arrived, scientists put the odds of Bennu hitting earth through the year 2200 at one in 2700. Now it's one in 1750 through the year 2300. The most menacing day is September 24, 2182.
If Bennu slammed into earth, it wouldn't wipe out life but rather create a crater roughly 10 to 20 times the size of the asteroid, said Lindley Johnson, NASA's planetary defence officer. The area of devastation would be as much as 100 times the size of the crater.
Australian Associated Press
