The COVID impacts of the past 18 months on our city have been profound and there appears little doubt the way in which we work, and where we work, have changed forever.
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But such has been the speed at which those changes have reshaped our working lives, those projections have not been figured into the business case supporting the $162 million extension of light rail from the City to Commonwealth Park.
The government aims to press ahead with the development, despite the latest Auditor-General's report expressing some uncertainty around the accuracy of the forecasting done in 2019, long before COVID sent us back to our homes.
Last month Transport Canberra revealed public transport use in the week after the lockdown had plummeted by 80 per cent compared with the same week in 2020, and down 89 per cent on 2019 levels.
The big question which remains now is, given COVID will be with us for a long time to come and the aversion to using public transport is certain to be a significant ongoing factor, should this costly extension be put on hold until we better understand what a "new normal" looks like?
Even if the 80 per cent fall in passenger usage moderates to 50 per cent over time, the project's short to medium term economic viability still looks dubious at best.
If we look to Europe for guidance, studies are revealing the huge impact COVID has made on mobility choices.
Respected analyst Professor Dr Meike Jipp, director of the Institute of Transport Research in Germany, said "the car is actually the winner from the pandemic situation, together with the bike, and the big loser is the public transportation system and aviation".
Consider, too, the auditor found the development of major projects within the precinct served by the extension also underpinned its viability.
"Should the Acton Waterfront not be developed as fast as is hoped, then the expected benefits of Light Rail Stage 2a and the timing of those benefits are at risk," the auditor found.
Do we need to spend $162 million now on transport infrastructure when the money is better spent elsewhere?
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