Teal revolution reshaped ACT Senate race

While Mr Pocock, and his fellow teals, are targeting Liberals, Labor Senator Katy Gallagher has also suffered collateral damage.

While some will suggest the poll, released on Friday, needs to be taken with a grain of salt given it was commissioned by Climate 200 there is no more reason to question its veracity than internal polling conducted by the other parties.

Mr Turnbull made serious waves on Thursday night Washington time when he suggested a strong turnout for the teals would be a win for moderate Liberals, many of whom risk losing their seats: "[It would mean] the capture of the Liberal Party will be thwarted by direct, democratic action from voters".

Mr Turnbull, who lost the prime ministership to Scott Morrison following a challenge by Peter Dutton (backed by Senator Seselja in 2018), has long maintained the Liberals have been captured by the party's right wing.

According to the Redbridge polling, Senator Gallagher's vote has dropped by eight per cent from 35 per cent in April to just 27 per cent.

That is well under the 33.3 per cent quota needed to win an ACT Senate seat, although preference flows should confidently secure her seat. Ms Gallagher recorded a final vote of 39.3 per cent in 2019.

Greens candidate Tjanara Goreng Goreng has also leached votes to the campaigns being run by Mr Pocock and Kim for Canberra independent Kim Rubenstein. Her vote has dropped from 15 per cent to 11 per cent. That, as with Senator Gallagher, is a fall of about 25 per cent.

Mr Pocock has been the subject of a campaign by right-wing activist group Advance Australia suggesting he is a closet Green.

There is no doubt, however, that Senator Seselja has been the biggest loser from the injection of two high profile independents into the race for the second upper house seat.

A high profile member of, and power broker within, his party's right-wing faction, he has been strongly criticised for his conservative views. These include opposition to same-sex marriage in the jurisdiction that delivered the highest vote in support it, and his refusal to support moves to give the ACT Legislative Assembly the authority to consider voluntary assisted dying legislation.

According to the Redbridge poll his primary vote is now well below the 33.3 per cent quota at just 25 per cent. At his first election, in 2013, Senator Seselja received 33.3 per cent of the final vote; 33.1 per cent in 2016, and 32.4 per cent in 2019.

His predecessor and former ACT chief minister, Gary Humphries, a classic small "l" Liberal, polled 33.73 per cent of the final vote in the 2010 election.

With Mr Pocock polling 21 per cent, Ms Rubenstein polling six per cent and the UAP's James Savoulidis also polling six per cent it now seems the ACT's Labor-Liberal Senate status quo that has dominated local politics for almost half a century could be about to come to an end.

The message for the ACT Liberals seems clear. Even if Senator Seselja does get across the line on preferences on May 21 they will need to give serious consideration to preselecting a candidate more in tune with the attitudes of this constituency ahead of the next election.

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