ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr has sounded what looms as the final death knell for the Civic stadium of dreams, describing his own vision as a risk of being "dead space" if the project went ahead.
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Speaking at the ACT estimates hearings on Tuesday, Barr told the committee he had to make a "judgement call" on a stadium location based on the associated costs of what will likely be a $500-$700 million project.
It's understood the eye-watering price of moving Parkes Way up to 12 metres to accommodate the stadium boundary on the site of the Civic pool has prompted the ACT government to change its thinking.
The government isn't prepared to definitively rule out the Civic option, but it will take a drastic shift in mindset to put it back on the table as the No.1 option.
The focus has moved to a potential redevelopment at Canberra Stadium and the AIS precinct, should the government be able to strike a deal or partnership with the Australian Sports Commission to revitalise the land at Bruce.
The commission - a federal government agency - is still reviewing its use of the 64 hectares of land it has at the AIS and how it can transform to move into the future.
The hope is the government and commission could create a sporting, residential and business precinct at Bruce improve the game-day experience.
Barr will likely go into more detail about the stadium situation on Wednesday when he fronts another hearing as the Economic Development Minister.
"There are plenty of people who rightly have a view that [building a stadium in the city] it has been done in other cities, therefore it should be done in Canberra," Barr said.
"I accepted that and have explored it extensively, but I've reluctantly reached the conclusion that it is very, very challenging on the Civic pool site.
"I've got to make a judgement call ultimately about this ... So whilst I have attempted to make this work, and have sought to do this, I concede it is much more challenging when you get into the detail than at first glance."
The uncertainty about the future of the AIS has been the biggest hold up in Canberra's stadium redevelopment plans, which Barr first raised as sport minister in 2009.
The sports commission owns the AIS Arena and Canberra Stadium. Both venues, however, are not considered part of the commission's core purpose any more.
A business case considered selling the assets to the ACT government, who could then either spend money redeveloping both venues or clear the land and sell it to developers to fund a stadium elsewhere.
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It was hoped Labor sweeping to federal government power this year would accelerate the stalled project, but so far there has been no movement.
The ACT government has completed a feasibility study, which revealed it was possible to build a 25,000 seat venue on the site of the Civic pool if compromises were made to the design and Parkes Way was moved.
It also investigated options to build a stadium at Exhibition Park, which would give the government more flexibility given the extra space available.
Rebuilding Canberra Stadium has long been considered the least popular option given the success of city-based stadiums around the country.
Barr has toured many of them, investigating rebuilds and new infrastructure in Melbourne, Parramatta and Adelaide.
The complications around land availability has affected Canberra prospects, although there have been proposals put to the government that would build over the top of Parkes Way to reduce the costs with moving the road.
The stadium vision has been one of three major infrastructure projects on the government's radar, and Barr has tempered timeline expectations. A new theatre will be built first, followed by a stadium and convention centre revamp.
Barr said the preference was for a new convention centre and theatre in Civic because they could be used more often than a stadium.
"One of the strengths of the theatre is it's used over hundreds of nights of the year," Barr said.
"One of the weaknesses of a stadium in the Canberra context with only two current football users, is that it would only be used 20-30 times per year. There's no other content.
"You end up with a dead space for 340 days of the year. There's an efficiency of land-use question."
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