Investments should be made in social infrastructure to attract residents to life on the southside and rebalance Canberra's expected population growth, an expert has said.
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Population projections released on Thursday revealed the ACT government expects more than 500,000 people will live on Canberra's northside, while fewer than 280,000 people will live south of Lake Burley Griffin by 2060.
Professor Richard Hu, an urban planner based at the University of Canberra's business school, said "magnet infrastructure" could be used to attract people to Canberra's south to ensure it grows more evenly with the north.
"People don't just choose a unit or a house; they choose a community and they choose a community that has a strong sense of community, including all the infrastructure and amenity for a better life," Professor Hu said.
Social infrastructure like schools, leisure centres and recreation spaces would help attract people to an area, he said.
Professor Hu said the government should intervene with infrastructure to rebalance the population growth forecasts, because it would be harder to attract people to the south once the centre of the city's gravity shifts too far north.
Professor Hu said the newly released projections were likely robust, despite a long history of over-estimated population projections for the city.
"I think it's not surprising that in the future the north part will have more population growth than the southside. Of course, there are important infrastructure implications," he said.
Dr Hayley Henderson, a research fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy's institute for infrastructure in society at the Australian National University, said the government should consider investing in areas which could be revitalised.
"If it's connected by public transport and there are potential for upgrades and then I think it would make sense to revitalise an area, to encourage people to go there rather than expanding the city," Dr Henderson said.
But Dr Henderson said investing in areas that cannot be easily revitalised and do not have strong transport links would not be the best use of public funding.
"Where those opportunities don't exist and they're unlikely to, then it doesn't make sense," she said.
Areas with potential for revitalisation include ones with underserviced transport corridors.
MORE A.C.T. POLITICS NEWS:
An ACT government spokeswoman on Thursday said the government would take planning decisions to drive people to areas with capacity for more residents, including the Tuggeranong district.
The ACT's population will grow to more than 784,000 people in June 2060, at an average growth rate of 1.4 per cent a year, the government believes.
The ACT government now believes Canberra will need an extra 100,000 homes by 2050 to house the city's growing population.
However, draft district planning strategies forecast the new homes would be needed by 2063, based on earlier population data.
Census data from 2021 revealed net migration to the ACT was significantly higher than previous estimates, forcing the Australian Bureau of Statistics to significantly increase its estimated population for the territory.
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Jasper Lindell
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
