NRL: Canberra Raiders' finals scenarios revealed

The Raiders' famously poor points differential (now minus 119) puts them in a dangerous seventh spot on the NRL ladder, equal on 32 points with sixth-placed Cronulla.

Newcastle's win over the Sharks on Sunday sealed their finals berth with 33 points, regardless of the result of their last-round game against the Dragons next Saturday.

Despite losing to Newcastle, a superior points difference to Canberra means Cronulla can even afford to be beaten next week by the Raiders and still make the top-eight.

Canberra is not so lucky, though, with the Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Roosters just two points behind it and all boasting vastly superior points differentials.

If the Raiders are defeated by Cronulla they will rely on the Panthers beating the Cowboys to secure eighth position on the ladder, behind either the Rabbitohs or Roosters.

But if Canberra and Penrith both lose, the Raiders' season will be over regardless of other results.

The easiest way the Raiders secure a finals spot is by leaving Cronulla with two points next weekend, which will likely see them finish sixth and get a home final. A draw against the Sharks will guarantee Canberra seventh spot and a rematch the following week at Shark Park.

If the Raiders finish eighth they should face Newcastle in the first week of finals, assuming the Knights beat the Dragons in round 27. If Canberra finishes sixth, it will likely host Cronulla, barring huge wins from either Souths or the Cowboys in their matches.

The bad news for the Raiders is with Corey Horsburgh facing a three-game suspension for a shoulder charge, they could be without the influential Origin forward for the most important part of the season.

If the Raiders don't appeal the charge and accept the minimum ban, that means Horsburgh won't return until a preliminary final should Canberra win its first two finals games.

More bad news would arrive if halfback Jamal Fogarty is ruled out for a stint with a face fracture, or if Josh Papali'i has a serious arm issue. Full medicals and scans will determine their fate on Monday.

The Sharks have some injury concerns of their own, Dally M-winning playmaker Nicho Hynes ruled out of Sunday's loss in Newcastle.

Coach Craig Fitzgibbon suggested Hynes' quad injury is not serious and he may return for the last-round game versus Canberra, though with their finals appearance assured regardless of the result, the Sharks may choose to rest him.

The good news for the Raiders is Jack Wighton and Sebastian Kris both came away from Saturday night with no aggravation of their respective hamstring injuries. Wighton returned at left centre with Kris beside him on the wing in the 29-18 loss to Brisbane.

It was not the regular season home farewell Wighton might have wanted with retiring legend Jarrod Croker, but the Raiders star is motivated to keep Canberra's season alive.

"We've just got to drop that game, take the good out of it and keep going because we're at that business end now," he said.

"Nothing else matters, what's been done is done and we roll forward."

Wighton is set to join South Sydney next season, and is expected to be playing at centre. With some late positional shifts from coach Ricky Stuart before their Broncos match, regular five-eighth Wighton said he "felt free" playing centre like he did earlier in his NRL career.

Before he leaves the capital, Wighton wants to go out a winner as a way to give back to the club that has been his "family" for over 14 years.

"It's crazy. It's a weird feeling, and something I've never done being a one-club player, so I'm just trying to enjoy the ride and do my very best," he said.

"[Winning a premiership is] the only thing I'm chasing in my footy career."

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