Although SnowyHydro chief Dennis Barnes seemed genuinely sincere when he told Senate estimates this week SnowyHydro 2.0 would be operating by 2028 at a total cost of $12 billion few punters would put money on that.
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That's because when it comes to major project delivery form is even more important than in picking the winner in the Melbourne Cup. And, unfortunately for Mr Barnes who was only appointed earlier this year, SnowyHydro's form is terrible.
When the bomber-jacket clad then prime minister Malcom Turnbull helicoptered into the heart of the Snowy Mountains on March 15, 2017, the estimated cost of the pumped hydro project was between $1.5 billion and $2 billion dollars.
How that figure was arrived at is a mystery given the feasibility study wasn't released until December 21 that year, just ahead of the annual Canberra migration to the coast.
While it concluded the project was technically and economically feasible the total cost was now between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion. What a difference 10 months makes.
Rather than seeing this as a red flag, particularly given there were already concerns more drilling should have been done to establish geotechnical conditions along the routes of more than 30 kilometres of tunnels, SnowyHydro pressed ahead.
The cost has now blown out to an estimated $12 billion dollars and, following a "reset" earlier this year, SnowyHydro 2.0 won't be generating power until 2028 at the earliest.
Both the cost and the timeline would appear to be based on some rather heroic assumptions. Only two tunnels, one of 2.85 and the other of 2.93 kilometres, have been completed.
Work on a 15 kilometre stretch of the 27 kilometre long tunnel connecting the Talbingo Reservoir to the Tantangara Reservoir has hit a major snag.
Florence, one of three $150 million drilling machines brought in for the project, has barely moved for the past 19 months. It is only 150 metres into a journey 100 times that distance.
The reason for this mishap, which is said to have cost $2 billion alone, appears be to a succession of poor decisions and blunders.
According to one worker Florence encountered "soft ground" at the 100 metre mark. Thousands of litres of water poured out into the tunnel.
Instead of pausing to conduct further investigations SnowyHydro kept drilling. Eight weeks and just 50 metres later and Florence was bogged. This has been blamed on a decision to operate the machine without the slurry system needed to drill in such challenging conditions.
Worse was to come. Just before Christmas last year a massive sinkhole had opened up above Florence.
Thousands of litres of grout, cement and polyurethane foam were pumped in to stabilise the surrounding area.
In July these elements caused a chemical reaction that saw the tunnel fill with a hazardous gas called isocyanate. Workers were told not to worry, it was just water vapour.
The lack of foresight and the over-optimistic projections for SnowyHydro 2.0 must set a new gold standard for getting it wrong.
The magnitude of the errors, which have not only cost billions of dollars but also put lives at risk, has been compounded by a complete lack of transparency.
SnowyHydro 2.0 is being underwritten by the taxpayer. It was billed as a nation-building project but is starting to look like a hole where it is easier to keep digging than to go back. The problem of course is not knowing how much more hole there is left to dig.
People have a right to know what is happening when it happens, not months afterwards.
