Long-term security could hang on EU's Ukraine decision

Each of the 27 member states will be represented with equal say at this forum designed for EU leaders to decide future policy.

On the agenda will be a potential in-principle agreement for Ukraine to begin negotiations to join the European Union, although it is unlikely such discussions would start in earnest until the war Russia is waging against Ukraine is over.

In addition to EU membership, plans for further economic and military support and a proposal for long-term security commitments for Ukraine are expected to be tabled.

Ukraine's bid for EU membership is moving swiftly. The process began last year on February 28, just a few days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Four months later, Ukraine went from applying for membership to being granted the status of a candidate country.

Seven points of reform were stipulated for Ukraine to undertake in order to progress on its pathway to EU inclusion, these concerned legal restructuring, further anti-corruption legislation, measures to combat oligarch control and money laundering, and protection of the rights of culturally and linguistically diverse minorities.

Fast forward to November of this year when the EU Commission reported on Ukraine's compliance. On a visit to Kyiv, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised Ukraine for making progress on the stipulated reforms, saying Ukraine had met over 90 per cent of the conditions required to start formal membership talks.

She noted that Ukraine had done so at the same time as facing military aggression and defending its territory from invasion by Russian forces.

"You are fighting an existential war and at the same time deeply reforming your country," von der Leyen told a news conference held with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

This assessment will no doubt inform any decision taken in December as to whether to start formal membership negotiations with Kyiv.

While the mechanics of membership began in 2022, the prospect of Ukraine joining the European Union has been well under way for many years.

It should not be forgotten that it was the then Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych's cancellation of a Ukraine-EU association agreement which was the catalyst which ignited the Maidan Revolution in 2013-14.

For the people of Ukraine, recent developments are an important progression in which they already firmly believe.

Repeated opinion polls show that Ukrainians want to join the EU, they see themselves as part of a European polity and aspire to live according to European standards of life.

The vast majority of Ukraine's population do not see themselves as belonging to a Russian imperial world.

EU membership would assist Ukraine by providing access to a European single market. Such economic expansion would aid in post-war rebuilding and reconstruction and compensate for the dismantling of Ukraine's historical trading relationship with Russia over the last decade.

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In terms of the war, any positive development regarding prospective EU membership is an important signal of international support for Ukraine, both in immediate terms, as Russia is hoping to outlast Western aid to Ukraine, and in the long term because joining a European bloc is the only real hope for lasting security for Ukraine.

On November 9, Zelenskyy posted on Instagram: "For Ukraine, the EU means economic security and social stability, and for the EU, Ukraine means strengthening of the entire community".

We can see why membership of the European Union would be a good thing for Ukraine but what can Ukraine bring to the EU? Ukraine's geographical location means it could provide effective transport routes for supply chains between Europe and Asia.

Ukraine could add to Europe's energy sector and guarantee food security to European states.

Ukraine has long had personnel strengths in IT and engineering and Ukrainians could prove a highly skilled labour force for other European countries.

One could expect enhanced cultural engagements given that some of Europe's most ancient landmarks, dating from the Kyivan Rus kingdom, are preserved in Ukraine.

Ukraine's military experience and expertise, forged through war, could now enhance European capabilities.

The EU has consistently condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and provided humanitarian, financial and military aid.

European countries are hosting Ukrainian refugees and European officials are assisting in the prosecution of Russian war crimes.

A formal allegiance with the EU by way of Ukraine becoming a member state would be a disincentive for Russia to ever invade again. A safe and secure Ukraine means lasting security for Europe.

Let's hope the European Council acts accordingly.