Labor has held Dunkley against a prepared, scrappy Liberal push, with ugly assistance from conservative campaign group Advance Australia.
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With a swing against the government of just more than 3 per cent, Jodie Belyea will be sent to Canberra to replace the sadly lost Peta Murphy.
She said she is now the "second most important Jodie" in the Prime Minister's life, in a reference to his recent engagement to Jodie Haydon.
As is the usual practice with by-elections, they are seen by anyone politically invested as referendums of the actions on the other side.
It is mid-term, so it is a good time to take stock. This by-election was fought largely as a cost of living poll with the recent Albanese broken election promise on tax cuts, a push on a so-called "ute tax", and a scare campaign over crime and immigration thrown in.
But the idea of an everyman seat, and it being miraculously Dunkley, is being tested. Victoria is not a great state for the Liberals, but it had held the seat for a long time in the past.
![Jodie Belyea shortly after winning the by-election. Picture AAP Jodie Belyea shortly after winning the by-election. Picture AAP](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/203652251/df5bcc0e-e69b-4d36-84c8-648a98ec560c.jpg/r0_369_7219_4444_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Ms Belyea was supported by Ms Murphy to eventually replace her. And it worked.
"I am not a career politician. I'm someone who wants to make a difference for this great community and further afield," the winner said among cheers.
The numbers show that the Liberal's fine candidate Nathan Conroy, a three-time elected local mayor, did not take votes off Ms Belyea. The Liberal rise is largely due to Pauline Hanson's One Nation and Clive Palmer's United Australia Party not running in the outer Melbourne seat as they did in 2022.
The right flank of the Liberal vote returned home.
No matter where it came from it was being embraced by the Liberals although the party would have been hoping for better. Still, the margin in Dunkley is thinner and other marginals are seen as being in reach.
"We are coming after you," Sussan Ley warned the Albanese government before listing target seats including Aston, Boothby and Parramatta.
Ley projected confidence over the Opposition Leader. Scott Morrison was not a drag on this vote.
"I've been around the booths, looked at signs. There was an interesting one that said, 'Vote for Nathan Conroy is a vote for Peter Dutton'. Well, it is," she said.
For Labor, there will be collective sighs of relief and moves to read the message sent particularly over cost of living pain. Not just from voters, but tactically how it will be fought on the political stage.
Perhaps the biggest story of the night is what has happened with the Greens. The Greens vote fell from 10.3 per cent in May 2022 to less than 7 per cent on the night.
It could be a product of the byelection or the party's position on Gaza, but the Greens would have been hoping for a better result.
Next up as Scott Morrison vacates, byelection for the safe Liberal southern Sydney seat of Cook.