A three week run of Australian derbies looms as a make or break stretch for the ACT Brumbies as they search for the consistency required to be a Super Rugby finals contender.
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Brumbies coach Dan McKellar will resist the temptation to make wholesale changes after a 30-point drubbing in New Zealand last week, although Sam Carter, Rob Valetini and Henry Speight could be recalled.
The Brumbies have won just one of their first three games of the season and need to topple the Melbourne Rebels on Friday night to stay avoid opening up a gap in the Australian conference.
The clash against the Rebels is the first of three Australian showdowns, with matches against the NSW Waratahs in Canberra on March 15 and the Queensland Reds on March 24.
The Rebels have been the Australian high flyers so far, beating the Brumbies in round one and then beating the Otago Highlanders in their second game to remain undefeated.
"They're some massive games coming up. We'll know a lot about where our season is in three weeks," McKellar said.
"That starts against Melbourne. We won't worry about the Waratahs or the Reds yet, it's all about Melbourne in Melbourne.
"We were certainly disappointed after [losing to Melbourne] in round one, but that's not our motivation. We need to improve on areas we weren't good at in our last game and turn up ready to do the job."
The Brumbies have shown their best and worst in three very different performances to kickstart the year.
They squandered chances against the Rebels in round one and lost by seven, converted opportunities against the Waikato Chiefs in round two and won by 37 and then capitulated against the Wellington Hurricanes to lose by 30.
The mixed bag of results hasn't affected the Brumbies' belief in the style of rugby they want to play, but McKellar says they're still learning how make it consistently effective.
The Brumbies missed 25 tackles against the Hurricanes, who dared the Canberra side to run the ball from deep inside their own half.
The Rebels will likely do the same, using smart and tactical kicking to turn around the Brumbies and slow the game down to avoid giving Tom Banks a chance to attack from the back in broken play.
McKellar's men had to learn the hard way about trying to force attacking rugby, attempting miracle offloads against the Hurricanes before they had worked their way into the contest.
The Brumbies also had to make 145 tackles compared to the Hurricanes' 95 and the defensive workload took its toll by the time the Brumbies got their hands on the ball.
"You've got to be able to have the balance in your game to take the opportunities when they are presented, or use your skill when it's on," McKellar said.
"But you've also got to have the understanding that you've got to earn the right by going through opposition teams first before trying to go around them.
"I thought our lineout and set piece was good [against the Hurricanes], when we had to defend our tryline I thought we did that well. There were some positives, but we have to move on quickly and turn things around."
Carter will almost certainly be added to the Brumbies' forward pack after McKellar left the former skipper in Canberra after a disrupted training week.
Speight injured his hip in round one and hasn't played since, but could be available for selection in Melbourne and young gun Valetini is fighting for a spot in the back-row rotation.
SUPER RUGBY ROUND FOUR
Friday: Melbourne Rebels v ACT Brumbies at AAMI Park, 7.45pm. TV time: Live on Fox Sports.
