Russia-Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin is losing on morale and momentum, but over a nuclear cliff?

More than seven months after the invasion began, is it nearly at an end? Experts watching Ukraine agree now is a critical time in the war and the decisions of supporters like Australia will matter.

Running low on missiles, but having morale and momentum at his back, President Volodymr Zelenskyy is again appealing for Australia's material support and asking the West not to waiver as Russia invokes the spectre of nuclear annihilation.

Privately the West's leaders should be counselling Mr Zelensky on restraint as his troops reclaim territory, says John Blaxland, the head of international security and intelligence studies at ANU. Even as publicly they're maintaining the decision on how the war ends is his as the leader of the injured party of the unprovoked invasion.

"Of course you've got to maintain troop morale, you want them to have that fighting spirit and to push hard against the Russians. But you don't want them to push so hard that Putin feels he's got no option but to press the big red button," Professor Blaxland says.

"No one wants Putin to have face-saving exit clauses, but we also don't want a nuclear conflagration - they're both ugly options.

"You have to treat seriously when he cries wolf, because one of those cries may well be genuine."

This week Russia's ambassador to Australia said the world should be worried about the use of nuclear weapons by his country in Ukraine, on the back of news that the Australian government was supporting claims in the International Court of Justice that Russia was responsible for genocide in the invasion.

The Ukranian leader, whose troops have achieved substantial territory gains with the use of Australia's Bushmaster armoured vehicles and missiles, made an unprecedented third broadcast this year direct to Australians on Thursday night, saying the "nuclear blackmail" was also from Russia's military activity around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, sparking a power crisis as Europe heads into winter.

"If the world's response is weak, then Russia will come up with new escalation," Mr Zelensky said through an interpreter. "We have a historic opportunity to set a precedent ... we can teach any president that no crime against international law will ever go unpunished."

He did not go into detail about what deterrent was needed, but the Russian ambassador expressed fury at what he interpreted as a first strike threat.

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia power plant, prompted the UN nuclear watchdog this week to call the situation "completely out of control" and demand a demilitarised zone.

Former president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, rejected those calls, saying European powers had other nuclear plants to power heating through winter, and threatened "accidents can happen there, too".

Sonia Mycak, a Ukrainian-Australian and research fellow at the ANU Centre for European Studies, says Australia equipping Ukraine to fend off the invasion faster would "provide a lasting security".

"I don't believe that puts us at risk - I think that makes the world will be a safer place if Ukraine wins this war," Dr Mycak said. It would be a "dangerous precedent" for China or North Korea to see the "injustice" of Russia's invasion to stand without a global response.

"If we look at our own part of the world, I don't think we want any major power being given the message, that using aggression, a big military, or nuclear threats that it can just take over."

Australians have connected with the plight of the Ukrainians as it doesn't accord with their sense of justice and peace, Dr Mycak said, fuelling their desire to contribute to the defence and refugee support.

She volunteers with the Ukrainian Association of Sydney. After the February 24 launch of Russia's invasion, the association was flooded with distressed calls from Australians with no direct connection to Ukraine.

"This is literally an aggressive, large neighbour that decided to take over your home, kill your family, and take your country. I think that's something that Australians have been very, very strongly affected by - that's why we've seen great bilateral support from Australia," Dr Mycak said.

Australia has been very prominent in its support, agrees Professor Blaxland, compared with other powers in this region of the world. But Russia has very few true allies. Both India and China helped instigate a small diplomatic slight that left Mr Putin waiting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting last month, and forced him to acknowledge China's "questions and concerns" over Ukraine.

Several other military experts, like former general Mick Ryan, agree with Dr Mycak that Australia can afford to provide more material support to Ukraine. But Professor Blaxland urges caution on making that call.

"What's the way out of this conundrum? This gets to the really awkward point, which is why people like Elon Musk started talking about maybe conceding on Crimea," Blaxland said.

"I'm all for supporting Ukraine in a measured way. I'm very careful about how far we push it, though. This is this is only one of many challenges we face globally."

Russia did have the means to retaliate against Australia for its Ukrainian support, he noted, in cyber, sabotage and though fifth columnists operating in Australia as supporters of the enemy, like the Russians have done in the United States to assist with the spread of disinformation.

Olga Boichak, a Ukrainian, sociologist and lecturer in digital cultures at the University of Sydney does not think that Australians are immune to disinformation.

"It's not even a matter of digital literacy anymore ... of verifying the sources, because what Russia is trying to do with disinformation is to undermine our knowledge structures and the ways in which we perceive information," Dr Boichak says.

"And we know that they have used the strategy in the past in the United States."

Russia can play on the ways Australians have been trained to perceive information, like looking at both sides and engaging with conflicting facts. This is extremely dangerous, she says, because this is such a unilateral instance of aggression in the case of Ukraine. So, engaging with the Russian narratives to try to see the "other side" of this war is a slippery slope.

Some students did protest at President Zelensky's second Australian address, claiming without NATO expansion the war would not be happening. This is one of Russia's primary narratives, but it has also promoted conspiracies that de-legitimise authority of independent media and governments. It found traction in the US with election fraud and anti-vaccination conspiracies, the latter having some success in Australia, too.

"We know that a lot of the people who support or who are most susceptible to Russian disinformation, they are also more likely to support other conspiracies," Dr Boichak says.

"Russia is really trying to position itself as this counter force to everything that's wrong with contemporary society."

It's hard to argue with them logically, she says, because the narratives are not based on rationality.

"Because they are from a parallel reality there is nothing that we can latch on to what is true, and that is why memes become almost like a playful way of debunking them."

But a virus that you can't see is easier to dismiss than mass graves, buckets of dental fittings, and mutilated bodies. Russian propagandists have variously dismissed them with a variety of contradictory claims - UK actors, fake images, false flag or justified actions.

Dr Boichak says when people encounter the evidence that is there, it can be traumatising.

"In a way, perhaps Russian narratives are easier to believe because they provide the sweet escape from the gory reality of Russia's war in Ukraine."

Dr Boichak says Ukraine is in a very tricky place at this point in the war and is in urgent need for Australia's support. For Ukrainians and their supporters, it can be tough to watch.

"We see that all the liberated territories have torture chambers, they have mass graves," she says.

"The more time passes, the more likely more people will perish because of being occupied by Russia."