When the Reserve Bank of Australia Board meets Tuesday to decide on its next interest rate move, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will not be at the table.
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But how the government plans to use the billions of dollars in revenue it collects - including how much goes to cost-of-living relief, to reducing government debt and to spending on health, aged care, defence, the NDIS and other priorities - will loom large over the central bank's deliberations.
Around a quarter of all spending in the economy comes from government, which makes it a crucial part of the equation for the Reserve Bank as it attempts to tame inflation by raising interest rates and curbing demand.
Since May last year the RBA has raised its cash rate by 3 percentage points - the most aggressive tightening cycle for monetary policy since the central bank gained independence - and economists expect interest rates will go even higher tomorrow to 3.35 per cent. Investors think they will peak above 3.7 per cent by the middle of the year.
There are signs that the succession of rate increases is working. House prices are falling, retail sales dropped in December, business investment is moderating and there are hints the labour market is starting to loosen.
The Reserve Bank itself thinks that inflation has peaked.
But hopes that price pressures will ease from here could come unstuck if the government mishandles the situation with big handouts or expensive policy measures.
The risk is not negligible.
The budget wish list is growing rapidly to include everything from family cost-of-living relief to improved weapons systems.
A record spike in living costs late last year, particularly for renters and mortgage holders, has spurred calls for more assistance for hard-pressed households in the May budget.
In addition, Health Minister Mark Butler has flagged that a $750 million funding plan for primary care will be brought forward in the budget.
The government is also under pressure to significantly increase defence and aged care spending, lift JobSeeker payments, improve housing supply and reform and upgrade the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
Aware of the risk, Dr Chalmers told a Chifley Research Centre conference in Canberra on Sunday that because of the nation's inflation challenge, the government needed to exercise spending restraint.
He said that was why the government ploughed almost all of a revenue windfall last October back into the budget.
"If we sprayed around...that upsurge in revenue, that would add to inflation," the Treasurer said. "You don't want to get our goals in conflict with the RBA's goals."
But the government has already flagged that it will provide more assistance for households in its May budget.
This concerns the International Monetary Fund, which said any such support needs to be temporary and well-targeted to vulnerable households.
In a swipe at the previous government over the design of some of its pandemic emergency measures such as JobKeeper, the IMF said "untargeted policies that weaken price signals should not be extended".
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Dr Chalmers assured yesterday that the government would be spending responsibly.
"Our job is to provide cost-of-living relief without adding to inflation. That's what we did in October and that's what we will do in May, because this inflation problem and higher interest rates are difficult enough without government making it harder," he said.
But the IMF has put the government on notice about some of its other initiatives. It warned spending from the National Reconstruction Fund, the Rewiring the Nation plan and the Housing Australia Future Fund needed to be spread out to avoid exacerbating price pressures and cautioned the government against creating more such entities.
More broadly, the IMF points out the cost of big commitments like the stage three income tax cuts and generous superannuation tax concessions goes well beyond the billions of dollars of foregone revenue.
"Sizeable structural spending pressures limit the degree of [debt reduction] and risk crowding out important spending priorities," it said.
Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy sits on the RBA Board and is likely to give the central bank important insights into the government's spending plans.
But as the government's Expenditure Review Committee works its way through minister wish lists in coming weeks, the Reserve Bank will be paying close attention.