It appears unlikely water ministers will be able to discuss plans to finalise the Murray-Darling Basin Plan when they meet in Sydney this week.
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A water recovery strategic review was supposed to look at options for finalising the basin plan through water recovery projects and tackling issues such as salinity and evaporation.
But a Senate estimates hearing heard on Friday that this review will not be on the table for the MINCO meeting, as the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria lag on water recovery projects.
Water ministers from each basin jurisdiction are meeting with Federal Water Minister Tanya Plibersek this week to review the last stage of the basin plan by its legislated June 2024 deadline.
The strategy was supposed to look at all outstanding basin recovery targets, including to deliver an additional 450 gigalitres of environmental water.
The latest Murray-Darling Basin Authority report found important elements of the plan were "at risk, or unlikely, to be achieved" by its deadline.
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Meanwhile, a separate $40 million fund for an Aboriginal Water Entitlements Program remains sitting in the bucket four years since it was established.
The money was supposed to be allocated towards purchasing water for First Nations wellbeing and cultural connections projects.
The estimates hearing was told discussions were still underway on how and where the allocations should go, including with northern and southern Indigenous basin groups.
The fund was set up by the former Coalition government in 2018 to buy water for Indigenous communities along the basin system.
Water Minister Tanya Plibersek had last year made a commitment to deliver the fund in full, after the former Morrison government was going to reallocate it to other projects.
Murray-Darling Basin Authority chief executive Andrew McConville said progress in some areas was overshadowed by lack of advancement in others.
The basin plan report card showed New South Wales sits in the red for its water resource plans, some water recovery projects will not be completed by the 2024 deadline.
NSW and Victoria have been asking for concessions to complete existing projects and to start new ones.
"Since the July 2022 report card, we have seen some progress with four New South Wales water resource plans accredited for groundwater resources," Mr McConville said.
"However, the dial remains firmly on the red because there is still a way to go to get all the WRPs accredited."
Other basin plan elements are on track, such as bird-breeding habitats and improving oxygenated water refuges for native fish, largely due to last year's widespread flooding.
"The basin plan needs to be fully implemented if it's to achieve the outcomes we're seeking for a healthy and sustainable basin for all communities," Mr McConville said.
"It is becoming clear what will and won't be achieved by June next year."
Nationals senator and shadow water minister Perin Davey raised concerns at the estimates hearing over the lack of progress.
Senator Davey said the strategic review was supposed to be out for public consultation by the end of last year.
She said it made it "impossible" for these projects to go through a business case, or through environmental approval processes to be constructed by the middle of next year.
"Stakeholders were told a water recovery strategy would be released by Christmas, but we are still waiting on Minister Plibersek to release the plan on how the government will deal with water recovery shortfalls," Senator Davey said in a statement.
"The MDBA report is the latest in a long line of reports making the point that timelines are unlikely to be met."