Mark Kenny | Aston byelection poses risks for both Labor and the Coalition

So clear was the need to address worsening problems in aged care, environment, social policy and international relations that Labor's case for a change of government made itself.

The result was an incoming administration whose margin was slender and whose primary support was a pallid 32.6 per cent.

Yet, its productivity in office has seen its standing solidify.

Part of this popular revival was the welcome realisation that government can still square up to difficult problems. Part was simply that Anthony Albanese is not Scott Morrison.

That the ex-PM remains in parliament is a visual reminder of the combative emptiness which characterised a government noted for culture wars, policy indolence and the illegal pursuit of welfare recipients.

But Labor's favourable comparison could only last so long. Already it is clear that the political economy of 2023 presents a more perilous set of conditions than any ducked by Morrison.

Among these is wages growth of 3.3 per cent being consumed by inflation of 7.8 per cent. Sharpening the household pain are interest rate rises designed to hunt that inflation down, a jobless rate creeping up, and a budget in no shape to meet necessary new expenditure in health, defence and aged care. These demands also make the case for unpopular new taxes unavoidable - hence the current superannuation concessions debate.

And there's the Aboriginal Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament, which the Coalition is now openly politicising, branding it a prime ministerial "vanity project" among other slights.

All this complexity is why you won't hear much confidence emanating from Albanese over the byelection in Aston in Melbourne's eastern suburbs set for April 1.

Under the besieged Alan Tudge as their candidate, the Liberals' margin was slashed to just 2.8 per cent in 2022.

That makes it technically marginal prompting some Labor hopefuls to claim the party will get over the line this time around.

After all, hasn't the government's stock risen with voters since May, 2022? Have not earlier doubts about Albanese's capacity to lead been dispelled by his strong performance and associated high approval ratings?

So why would the PM be cautious? In a word, experience. Albanese entered parliament the best part of three decades ago in the same electoral reset that announced the long Howard era.

So when he eyes the Aston trophy, he balances any enthusiasm against the knowledge that enduring historical records endure for a reason. The relevant one here being that no federal government has increased its holdings through a byelection in around a 100 years.

Byelections have their own norms. Constituents know the government's existence is not at stake and generally feel more inclined to send a stiff letter to Canberra than send a warm thank-you note for all the good work.

In Albanese's first four elections, the young MP from the NSW Left had his idealism tempered by the innate conservatism of middle-Australian voters - an apt description of Aston voters. As Phil Coorey noted recently, Aston is not so much inner-city "teal" territory as it is "bog-standard" suburban Australia. It is also likely anti-Tudge swing in 2022 was a verdict on Morrison and of course the member himself. Neither is on the ballot this time.

Politics devotees might remember that this is not the first time Aston has scored a prominent walk-on role in the nation's political theatre.

It was on the first Insiders program, in fact, the morning after the Aston byelection of 2001, that a relieved Howard reversed his fortunes declaring his government "well and truly back in the game".

"If there were an unstoppable momentum for Labor to win the federal election (due later in 2001) they'd have rolled us over in Aston," he told Barrie Cassidy.

Rocked by the loss of Ryan in a byelection some months before, Howard was widely regarded as toast nearing the end of his second term.

Aston was his turning point, suggesting victory later that year was still possible.

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Albanese is in no such extremis. The next general election is years away and Labor does not hold Aston anyway. But unmet expectations can be dangerous for leaders, potentially fuelling dissatisfaction and emboldening internal rivals.

It's Peter Dutton who carries the real risk. For him, the loss would not merely be history-making, it would be read by internal critics as proof their leader's jaw-jutting oppositionism is out of step with community expectations.

If Dutton is not nervous, he should be. Metropolitan Victoria is hardly a conservative Queenslander's natural environment and if Astonians are looking for evidence of a more constructive engagement since the ignominious end of Morrison, Albanese's speech at the Press Club on Wednesday was directed at them.

Among the things blocked or opposed by Dutton's "noalition" said Albanese, were: increasing the minimum wage; making gender equity and job security objectives of the Fair Work Act; getting better pay for "the heroes of the pandemic"; creating new jobs in renewable energy; providing assistance to households with their power bills; and upgrading of the emissions Safeguard Mechanism "that they designed in government" to deliver Labor's 43 per cent 2030 target.

"For a decade in government they created these problems - and now in opposition they stand in the way of the solutions."

Dutton needs an answer.