The tram is asking Canberrans to make a large compromise

When an economist colleague wrote about high-density housing in Canberra, I asked whether these would remain popular lifestyle choices into the future. Replies to my question caused quite the "bin fire".

One respondent argued that his apartment lifestyle was perfect. He woke up, bought a coffee at the downstairs café, then caught the tram to work. But during the pandemic, these same people were screaming to live in a detached house where they could touch the earth's surface.

Yet here we are again with people suggesting the tram makes living in high-density apartments appealing.

This personal paradox echoes Canberra's own paradoxical existence. But many Canberrans feel they cannot discuss the tram in public and have thanked me for giving voice to their concerns. Rather than push a particular agenda, my aim here is to stimulate a diversity of views and thinking about Canberra's future and to ask some questions that remain unanswered.

Canberrans are highly educated, and sophisticated in their political views, with some progressive and others keen to defend our existing political institutions.

Indeed, Canberra is a city of paradoxes - a compromise between Melbourne and Sydney, a city designed by an American architect (his wife drew the winning plan) who was subsequently sacked by public servants with their own plan, a "bush capital" that wants to be a "real" city, and a political culture that regards itself as a leader in progressive policies that are rarely congruent with the rest of the nation.

Much of Canberra's development did not happen until Sir Robert Menzies moved to Canberra and forced the capital's development. Before then, it was considered "the ruin of a good sheep station" and "six suburbs in search of a city".

The latter critique provides the biggest challenge for public transport, with most people living in sparsely populated urban sprawl. Many think the solution is to increase housing density and provide infrastructure that supports green living without the need for a private motor vehicle.

Apartment living is great for single professionals, but for those with families, injuries, or disabilities, or those who want a veggie garden and chooks in the backyard, an apartment can be one's own personal hell.

Canberra is not Newtown with the density that provides its access to all modes of transport and other conveniences of city life. And the cost of infrastructure over such a vast area will likely push debt and therefore rates even higher.

In fact, the ACT lost its AAA credit rating in September because of its infrastructure spend and net debt projected to increase to $14 billion by 2026; and yet in parallel Canberra's taxation base is the fastest growing of all jurisdictions in the country. It begs the question, is the tram worth the cost, not only in the hit to the back pocket but in lifestyle and other compromises?

The idea is that the tram provides a transport and housing corridor from Gungahlin through to Tuggeranong to improve the city's liveability.

Without the need for private cars or detached housing, we can reduce emissions and relieve traffic congestion. Canberrans even tell me that they will catch a tram, but they won't take a bus.

Yet when I lived in Palmerston, to get to work went from 30 minutes to one hour on the bus when the routes were changed to feed the tram. I needed to get to Bruce, not Civic, so for the price of a 10-minute drive, I stopped using public transport.

People in Canberra's south are paying for the tram from Gungahlin to Civic, whereas in nearby populous Palmerston car use remains necessary.

Patronage of the tram is lauded as proof of the concept, but while more people might be using the tram, the per capita use of public transport has been in decline since the 1990s.

And do families really want to live in apartments without a private car? This may be possible in Newtown, but most people do not move there to start a family.

Canberra, however, with its open spaces, excellent sporting facilities, cultural institutions, bike paths, lakes, and natural beauty remains a wonderful place for families to live and prosper.

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But not everyone can get to many of these places without a car. That won't change even if the tram does run all the way to Tuggeranong. But then what happens to these people?

Many are already moving to regional NSW. Towns and villages such as nearby Yass, Murrumbateman, Gunning, Sutton, and Gundaroo are already developing their own mini-suburbs. Those Canberrans who do want to live in detached housing are moving to the country.

The problem with Canberrans moving into regional NSW is that these people still tend to work in the ACT. And the only way to get to work in Canberra from regional NSW is to drive a private motor vehicle.

The absence of housing choice under the ACT government's high-density agenda is driving the increased use of motor vehicles in the ACT.

Not only that, but the roads are so bad in the regions that larger, long-range diesel SUVs are perfect for commuting to Canberra. EVs and an extensive tram network will not change this situation.

Those Canberrans who do not want to live in high-density housing are making choices that the ACT government cannot control. Canberra's green vision underpinned by high-density housing along a tramway is not for everyone it seems.