2016 was a watershed moment for the world for two reasons. The first was the Brexit referendum. The second was Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton.
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Both were widely seen as a rejection by older, poorer and less well educated voters of globalism, the dominance of elites, and mass emigration changing the composition of the neighbourhoods in which they lived.
Another significant factor was the belief by this cohort that while the rich, the powerful and the well-connected had done very nicely since the global financial crisis their lives had gone backwards. Wages had fallen in real terms, unskilled jobs were harder to come by and, when they were advertised, citizens had to compete with migrants willing to work for less.
Low American basic wage rates are regularly blamed on the porous border with Mexico which has seen the influx of many millions of undocumented "illegals" since the turn of the century.
Donald Trump campaigned on Ronald Reagan's 1980 slogan "let's make America great again" and pro-Brexit campaigners in the UK, such as the then-Conservative Nigel Farage, pledged to retake control of the borders and to end the so-called "tyranny of Brussels".
Hillary Clinton famously referred to Trump's supporters as "deplorables" and paid a high price for that blanket condemnation of a large chunk of the voting public.
Last weekend, in the first election for the European Parliament since COVID-19, many European countries including France, Italy, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia, are having their own Brexit and Trumpian moments.
In many of these countries support for parties of the centre left and the left fell significantly in the face of a corresponding increase in support for parties of the right and the far right.
While centrists did win the largest numbers of seats in the European Parliament the results fell well short of their expectations.
When the new European Parliament convenes it will be deeply divided between the pro-European centrists and the much more nationalist right and far right members.
Emigration, environment and climate change are shaping up as major battlegrounds. The Greens, who lost 20 seats, and centrist parties such as President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance Party, have long favoured expensive mitigation programs and strict legislation designed to curb emissions.
But with much of Europe in the midst of economic turmoil and a cost-of-living crisis that dwarfs what is happening here and continent-wide concern about energy security, millions of people are more worried about how to get through next week than the next decade.
It is not a little ironic that in the same month Euro-sceptic and leader of the far right National Rally Party Jordan Bardella seems set to become France's new Prime Minister the UK is expected to return Labour to office after 14 years of Conservative rule on July 4. This is partly because of significant "buyer's remorse" over Brexit which has failed to deliver much of what its advocates promised.
Given the next French presidential election is not due to be held until 2027 life is about to get very interesting for President Macron and the people of France if the NRP takes control of the national parliament.
Europe's shift to the right will have significant ramifications for the rest of the world, including Australia and this region. The prospect of a more protectionist, non-interventionist and fragmented European Union at the same time as a Trump presidency will only be welcomed by Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and the many other enemies of the West.
For them it is a gift.
