Senior Nationals MPs are increasingly nervous the High Court will rule against Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and order him to fight a byelection when it finally rules on the status of the so-called "citizenship seven" on Friday.
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The High Court held three days of hearings earlier this month on whether seven federal politicians, including Mr Joyce, were invalidly elected because they held dual citizenship, which is a breach of section 44 of the constitution, which prevents MPs from serving if they have dual citizenship.
And two weeks after those hearings, the court will rule on Friday at 2.15pm on Mr Joyce's fate, and that of six senators: Nationals deputy leader Fiona Nash, former Nationals cabinet minister Matt Canavan, former Greens senators Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam, One Nation's Malcolm Roberts and NXT leader Nick Xenophon.
If a byelection is ordered in Mr Joyce's northern NSW seat of New England, the earliest the poll can be held is December 2.
As the only lower house MP, and with the Turnbull government holding just 76 seats in the 150-member lower house, it is Mr Joyce's case the government is most concerned about, although independent MP Cathy McGowan said on Tuesday that she would continue to support the government, which gives the Coalition some breathing room.
Fairfax Media spoke to half a dozen Nationals MPs on Tuesday and the prevailing view was that for Mr Joyce, who referred himself to the Court in August when he learnt he was a New Zealander by descent through his father James, a byelection is increasingly likely.
"That fact that it has taken so long for the court to make its ruling doesn't bode well," one MP, who asked not to be named, said, "and all sorts of theories are sweeping the place."
"Let's get through to Friday and see what happens," said another MP. "The fact it has taken two weeks is a worry. Confidence has been eaten away as the days have gone by."
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has repeatedly said that, based on the advice of the Solicitor-General, "We are very, very confident that our members who have been caught up in this will be held by the court to be eligible to sit in the Parliament and therefore eligible to be ministers."
But another Nationals source said that the two-week delay in the ruling could favour Mr Joyce as a "black letter law" decision against the Nationals leader would likely have been made quickly.
While confidence is falling in government ranks that the court will rule favourably for Mr Joyce, to a person Nationals MPs believe Mr Joyce would win a byelection that could feature a Melbourne Cup field of candidates from Labor, One Nation, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and possibly former New England independent and political foe Tony Windsor.
If Mr Joyce loses his seat, Nationals Senate leader Nigel Scullion is the next in line to take over by dint of seniority, even though he is in the upper house and the Coalition will likely face at least one sitting week without Mr Joyce as lower house leader.
Infrastructure Minister Darren Chester and Small Business Minister Michael McCormack are both seen as future leaders of the Nationals and are in the lower house.
ABC psephologist Antony Green told Fairfax Media that December 2 was the most likely date should a byelection be ordered, but December 9 was possible if a Queensland state election was called for November 25.
