Andrew Barr's backdown on the Telopea tennis courts was forced by the simple political reality – that he doesn't have a majority in the Assembly, relying on Shane Rattenbury's Green vote for every move. The moment Rattenbury backed the Telopea cause, it was clear the school would win. And as the 2016 election draws closer, you can expect Rattenbury to flex that muscle more often, choosing causes for maximum effect, to differentiate his party.
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That's the reality, but it remains to be seen whether Barr has the patience and the inclination for backdown and compromise that his political situation demands.
Rattenbury went straight to the odd and unwieldy nature of the Telopea deal that Barr had engineered. The problem at hand was rebuilding the Canberra Services Club, destroyed by fire, Rattenbury pointed out. "To address what is a fairly clearly defined issue, a number of other pieces of public land have been drawn into a rather complicated scenario, which is bringing a level of upheaval that seems out of proportion to the initial problem."
Indeed. The services club needs a new home. The government decides on a site beside the Manuka shops. Which means the 88-year-old childcare centre must move. Which means the school must lose its tennis courts.
But why such a complex puzzle? There are two answers. One is the plan Barr has in mind for the former site of the services club, beside the Manuka oval, detail of which is yet to come to light. The second answer is more straightforward.
At the root of the territory's budget is a perennial problem – the lack of a reliable self-generated revenue stream. This is behind the shift to higher rates, and it is also what leaves the government vulnerable to temptation – in the form of land sales, where there is always money to be made. This makes the ACT's ownership of Canberra's land its great advantage and also a great danger for sensible development.
Barr is as vulnerable to this as any territory leader, and more so, given his can-do economic approach, his determination to stimulate activity as a path to economic independence, and his unprecedented budget woes. Which is why we're seeing the biggest public housing renewal in Canberra's history and an unprecedented sell-off of government buildings. It's why we're seeing the development of the West Basin, with parcels of lakeside land to be sold there within a year or so for residential and commercial development. And presumably it's also a major reason why Telopea was to lose its tennis courts and the Manuka childcare centre is to be moved to an as-yet-undetermined alternative site. The Manuka land is valuable.
The Telopea land swap was Barr's idea. On November 24, the Education Department emailed agencies saying while he had not done an analysis of the Telopea site, "preliminary advice indicated that it may not be a viable option". On December 5, Katy Gallagher resigned as Chief Minister, and it appears one of the early decisions of her successor was the land deal. In answers to questions from the estimates committee in July, Mr Barr confirmed that the decision to transfer the lease from Education to the Land Development Agency had been his.
Events since have proven it a wrong-headed decision that didn't treat seriously the school and childcare communities. And as Barr pushes ahead now with plans to relocate the childcare centre and allow Defence Housing and the services club to redevelop the Manuka site and as he pushes ahead with building sales and commercial land releases, all in the name of revitalisation, economic activity and budget necessity, he would do well to remember the fighting nature of articulate Canberrans like Paul Haesler and the political weight of Shane Rattenbury, who has his own political skin to save.
