Eden-Monaro byelection: Does Labor have the most to lose at the polls this weekend?

Their oval, down in south Queanbeyan, along the Old Cooma Road, isn't floodlit. It's hard for the young players to pick out where the ball is, while their families stand in the cold, watching them from the sidelines.

And those parents are exactly the sort of electors political candidates want to meet.

They're engaged participants in the community. They're the sort of people who contribute and act, in a small way, as leaders.

If you were clever at marketing you might even brand them as the sort of people who "have a go, to get a go".

They're self-motivated voters, looking for a home.

Which might be why, last Thursday, Labor candidate Kristy McBain joined the small group shivering on the sidelines.

She was, in marketing speak, selling herself by being herself, and in doing so quickly discovered something government could do to make a real difference to the lives of these people.

Floodlights.

By the end of training the team was virtually playing in the dark and McBain seized her chance.

Although lighting is a local government responsibility, as a long-time Bega Mayor she understands how to free up money for this kind of thing. The candidate swung into action. Well before the end of play, the parents had their promise.

All politics is local; especially when the electorate is as finely balanced as this one.

From 1972 until 2016, Eden-Monaro was a true bellwether seat - held by the government.

That was the year Mike Kelly did the impossible, pulling the seat from under the feet of Liberal Peter Hendy, who'd been part of the plot to install Malcolm Turnbull.

Voters here don't have much truck with political games.

But Kelly's win was very much a personal victory and now he's retiring.

The demographics insist the seat should return to the coalition. Hence the excitement.

First out of the blocks was NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance, holding the state seat of Bega, within the boundaries of the federal seat.

He worked hard during the fires and became popular calling out Scott Morrison's failures - so no favours there.

Others felt his personal life could never survive the intense scrutiny of a federal campaign. He's out.

Then there's NSW Deputy Premier John Barilaro who holds the state seat of Monaro. If he was running he'd easily be favourite but he's hobbled by the feds.

Leader Michael McCormack doesn't want a rival in Canberra and Scott Morrison wants a Liberal, not a National, in the seat - so no favours there, he's out too.

What's interesting though is that Barilaro says he might stand, next time, if the coalition doesn't win on Saturday.

There's no incentive for his supporters to send preferences to their partner.

It's where votes like this flow that will determine this result. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are, interestingly enough, preferencing Labor.

Given the narrow margin by which victory is expected to be determined, small details like this might end up being crucial.

Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs has the personal backing of Scott Morrison.

She's experienced, tough, bonded to the community, a Christian, and the PM (a former state director of the party) is pushing her hard.

He wants, needs her to win. It would provide him with a huge fillip, showing the country's moved on from climate change and accepts he's got a plan for the future, even if he isn't bothering to share most of the detail with us yet.

A poll last weekend suggested Morrison's hitting Kevin Rudd like approval ratings because of the way he dealt with COVID-19.

Then again, Rudd didn't survive his first term.

That's why, although this result will be decided on local issues, it will have a dramatic impact on federal politics.

Because of its swinging status, the entrails of this vote will be seized on by a febrile political class which will use it to interpret our mood, shaping the political future.

That's why the person with most to lose is, ironically enough, Anthony Albanese.

It's a complex situation.

To understand this you need to go into the arcane workings of the party.

The Opposition Leader personally picked McBain. The party's right-wing HQ in Sussex Street was backing another candidate - after all, she became Bega's Mayor as an independent and she's Albanese's pick for the job.

His internal opponents see this byelection as a no-lose proposition and they're using her as a marker for his capacity to defeat Morrison.

If she fails, they'll use the result as an opportunity to destabilise him.

Completely unfair, but that's just the way it is. If Labor loses expect a new opposition leader by next February.

A win will give Morrison a huge fillip.

It'll demonstrate he's recovered from his terrible mishandling of the bushfires - which wreaked some of their worst devastation in this area - and solidify the legitimacy he gained with his unexpected election victory last September.

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If, on the other hand, the Liberals lose their is no skin off his nose.

He'll simply dismiss the result by noting that the last time a government won a byelection from the opposition was a hundred years ago.

Which is true, but not the point.

The real story here is, however, is one the media isn't covering. McBain's campaign has been disrupted by a vicious e-mail campaign, purporting to come from church groups.

The Catholic Bishops conference (and Kotvojs) have both denounced the campaign, but that doesn't mean it won't bite.