Did the 'Catholic vote' help or hinder Joe Biden on his path to the White House?

Times have changed over 60 years. Kennedy had to convince America that it was safe and acceptable to elect a Catholic with allegiance to the Vatican. Biden, with similar Irish-Catholic roots, has had to convince some of his fellow Catholics, and even some of the Catholic hierarchy, that he is really a Catholic in good standing. They cast doubt on his credentials. Donald Trump courted the Catholic vote, and within some Catholic circles it was alleged that if you did not vote Republican you would go to hell.

All this matters to the wider community because American Catholics make up about 22 per cent of voters, and the myth persists that there is something called ''the Catholic vote''. In a close election, such voters can be crucial. In both Australia and the US, the general trend of Catholic voters over the past 60 years has been a move towards the right of politics - from Labor to Liberal in Australia, and from Democrats to Republicans in the US. The evidence in Australia comes in the new prevalence of Catholics in the parliamentary Liberal Party.

That shift away from an Irish-Catholic working-class attachment to the political left came initially because of the upward mobility of the Catholic community. The new middle class slowly moved to the political right to match their economic interests. In Australia this began with the Labor split in the 1950s, which led to the formation of the Democratic Labor Party.

The second element came with the rise of sexual morality and life and death issues. On issues like women's rights, divorce, abortion, euthanasia, gay rights and same-sex marriage, the official Catholic position was a conservative one. The political left generally embraced the new agenda ahead of the right, despite substantial cross-party elements on all these issues.

The Australian Catholic story is similar enough to the American one for Australians to have some inkling of what is going on in American politics, but not a full understanding because there are several important differences.

American Catholics are much more fragmented along racial and ethnic lines. The parallel with Australian Catholics is clearer with white American Catholics like Biden. There is also a large Hispanic Catholic community which has a very different culture and votes quite differently, as well as a smaller African-American Catholic community.

According to the Pew Research Centre, white Catholics voted overwhelmingly for Trump back in 2016, by a margin of more than two-thirds to one-third. This contributed significantly to his victory.

In 2020 the estimates are that Biden did better, but still lost the white Catholic vote by about 57 per cent to 42 per cent. In contrast, Biden defeated Trump among Hispanic Catholics by about 67 per cent to 32 per cent. These votes would have been significant in swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania on the one hand, and Arizona and Nevada on the other. Overall, Catholics split about 50-50.

Tthere is also the issue of abortion. In Australia abortion law reform has mainly been fought out at the state level, while in the US the rulings of the Supreme Court, such as Roe v. Wade in 1973, have been crucial. This makes it a likely issue at any US presidential election.

The issue is important to most Catholics, but for some it is what the Right to Life Association in Australia used to call a "disqualifying" issue - in the days when it was prominent in Australian election campaigns. That is, it is a non-negotiable, top priority issue which absolutely disqualifies a pro-choice candidate from Catholic support, somewhat like being a member of the Communist Party during the Cold War.

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This uncompromising position is far more common in the US than it is in Australia. Moreover, it is at the heart of conservative Catholic campaigning, including that conducted by some bishops and priests. Hence the idea that you must vote Republican to avoid going to hell.

Some of the American Catholic hierarchy, supported by wealthy Catholic business figures, are highly political conservative advocates. They are anti-Pope Francis and pro-Trump, and the pro-life position on abortion is their go-to election issue. In the past, some priests have refused Communion to Catholic Democrat pro-choice candidates, such as John Kerry in 2004, when they presented themselves at Mass.

On these grounds Biden was considered unacceptable by some Catholics because, like the official position of the Democratic Party, he is pro-choice. That he was a lifelong Catholic who worshipped at St Joseph on the Brandywine in his home state of Delaware was insufficient. The high priority he gave to issues close to the heart of Pope Francis, like climate change, immigration and refugees, did not matter either.

This is the context for the controversy over US Supreme Court appointments. Such appointments are the best weapon available to a US president in reaching out to particular interests. In appointing Amy Coney Barrett in the dying days of this presidential term, over Democratic objections on serious procedural grounds, Trump was able to appeal to pro-life Catholic voters while also making those objections seem like anti-Catholicism.

There are many factors at play in Biden's victory, including Trump's management failings and his unattractive persona, so the faith of the competing candidates is just one part of the election campaign. Despite the doubters within his own church, Biden's recognisably social-justice-based faith was an important element of his authentic winning election package.