ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr is urging caution over calls to cut COVID-19 isolation periods, warning new variants may emerge in the northern hemisphere's winter.
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State and territory leaders will meet at national cabinet on Wednesday, with a cut to the mandatory isolation period, from seven days to five, on the agenda.
And a leading epidemiologist is urging authorities to "be realistic about what we're achieving" through elongated isolation periods, which she warns may act as a disincentive to isolate at all.
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has long called for isolation to be slashed, though was overruled by the chief medical officer last month as the highly-infectious Omicron strain drove a surge in cases.
But with Australia emerging from its winter wave, there are indications national cabinet's stance is softening.
Mr Barr said he did not support loosening isolation requirements "at this stage", arguing a subsequent spike infection spike was "certainly a risk".
"This would be a reason to consider a change, but I am concerned about new variants that may emerge during the northern hemisphere winter," Mr Barr said.
"I will consider the advice of the AHPPC and [ACT chief health officer] Dr Coleman before reaching a final conclusion."
Mr Barr has previously been reticent to impose different rules to NSW. But he has also acknowledged the state surrounding the ACT often made decisions "at the higher end of the risk profile".
The ACT is currently the only jurisdiction in Australia where COVID-19 patients can exit isolation while still symptomatic, but that cohort is required to wear face masks and avoid high-risk settings.
Epidemiologist Catherine Bennett said data showed roughly a third of infections were leading to isolation, with the majority either unaware they had contracted COVID-19, or failing to report their infection.
Although urging against tearing up Australia's COVID-19 protections, Dr Bennett said arguing shorter isolation periods would cause cases to surge again was "very simplistic".
"If you keep asking a lot from people, you'll have less control over it anyway," she said.
"Your net change might be nothing. By trying to keep it at seven days, you might in fact have more exposure days, because less people participate."
Given requirements for PCR tests are significantly less onerous than last year, more people are entering isolation well after becoming infectious, Dr Bennett said.
She said a person getting tested and isolating the moment they became symptomatic was still likely to have spent half their infectious period in the community.
"We have to be realistic about what it's achieving and try to get the balance right," she said.
"Why not work on that second week by bringing the actual physical isolation to five days, but asking [that] for another seven, no matter what their symptoms are, patients do wear a mask and do stay really mindful?
"Really reinforcing that might balance some of the risks."
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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reportedly hinted the cut was imminent, after the South Sydney Rabbitohs were tipped off that star man Damien Cook would be eligible to play this weekend, despite entering isolation on Saturday.
But he was publicly non-committal on Monday, saying only the matter would be discussed at national cabinet and Premier Perrottet's position was "very clear".
"That of course is an immediate issue, but we are looking as well at the longer-term about what the nature of restrictions are," he said.
"Over a period of time they have been reduced, and it is important that decisions are made which are right for the times."
Wednesday's meeting will include a briefing from the chief medical officer, and Mr Albanese stressed advice underpinning a decision to extend paid pandemic leave had been vindicated.
"It did peak when the health advice said it would peak, and it is coming down," he said.
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