One of the biggest shocks of the 2022 federal election was witnessing a "Greens-slide" in conservative Queensland.
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When the Greens seized three Brisbane-based seats on May 21, they quadrupled their presence in the House of Representatives.
The party now holds four of the top five "youth seats" - electorates with the highest population of people aged 18 to 29. The one exception? The seat of Canberra.
Are young Australians the unforeseen political force that will turn Canberra from red to green?
A hidden political force
In the 2022 election, the Greens won the three seats with the highest proportion of young voters, those aged 18 to 29.
Before the 2022 election, the top youth electorates were a potpourri of primary colours. But the Greens stole the seats of Brisbane and Ryan off the Liberals; and gained Griffith from Labor.
And while Labor MP Alicia Payne maintained the electorate of Canberra, Greens candidate Tim Hollo received nearly 25 per cent of the primary vote, while the Liberals came third with 22 per cent.
Ms Payne had an upswing of more than 4 percentage points and received nearly 45 per cent of the primary vote.
Top five youth electorates:
- Melbourne, Greens (26.9 per cent youth vote)
- Brisbane, Greens (25.7 per cent youth vote)
- Griffith, Greens (24.7 per cent youth vote)
- Canberra, Labor (23.1 per cent youth vote)
- Ryan, Greens (22.5 per cent youth vote)
Greens may target Canberra
The Greens ran concerted campaigns for years in the three Brisbane seats they won in 2022, ANU political scientist Dr Jill Sheppard said.
"It's something that they haven't tried in other cities yet [but] seats like Canberra [may become] a target for that type of campaign effort in future campaigns," she said.
Canberra may also be different because of the types of young people living here.
While cities like Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney attract graduates working in creative or white-collar industries, Canberra has a lot of university students, Dr Sheppard said.
"Their motivations for voting and their motivation for living in the city are probably fairly different," she said.
One such university student is 21-year-old Zali McPherson, vice president of University of Canberra Greens.
The Belconnen resident has personal reasons for her Greens affiliation, such as navigating the health system with a disability and environmental concerns.
"There's a long standing tradition of voting Labor in Canberra, I've seen. I think a lot of that is what Canberra is comfortable with," she said.
Dr Sheppard agrees, suggesting the public service vote is strongly in favour of the Labor party.
"Even if you did get a Green revolt among younger voters in the territory, that will still likely be drowned out by generations of Canberra voters who are very rusted onto the Labor Party," she said.
I am a progressive Labor voice: MP
Canberra MP Alicia Payne said she did not take her position for granted.
"I have made a lot of effort to engage with younger people as much as I can and I know that they are incredibly engaged on progressive issues, and climate change in particular," she said.
Ms Payne said other concerns of young Canberrans - like housing affordability, social justice and Australia's treatment of refugees - were also priorities.
ANU student and Dickson resident Sinead Winn, 20, once considered joining the Greens - but is glad she went with Labor instead.
Coming from a unionised family in the Blue Mountains, she decided the party's voting structure better represented working class voices.
She is now co-convener of ACT Young Labor.
"Just because of the way our government functions, [Labor] is the only left wing party where you can truly affect change," Ms Winn said.
What young people care about
A 2022 Triple J survey found the top five issues for 18- to 29-year-olds were the environment, climate change, health, mental health and housing.
Dr Sheppard said the Greens may have success in Canberra by running on a housing affordability platform.
"In Canberra, you do have a transient population that is highly dependent on the rental market. And I would suspect that that's something that the Greens will really try to hammer home," she said.
A 2019 research study by the ANU reported half of the 18- to 24-year-olds surveyed the environment as their top election concern.
However, University of Melbourne Youth studies expert Professor Lucas Walsh said it was important not to generalise about young people.
"You can't underestimate just how diverse youth population of Australia are," he said.
In 2019, 44 per cent of under 25-year-olds voted for Labor, 37 per cent Greens, and 15 per cent Liberals, an ANU study reported.
"The Labor vote within this age group has gradually declined over the past few decades, alongside the rise in the Greens vote," the report said.
In June 2022, 88.4 per cent of eligible voters aged 18 to 24 were enrolled compared with 97 per cent of the general population.
Who cares about young people?
The Abbott government defunded the Office of Youth in 2013. Scott Morrison appointed a youth minister when he took power, with the role held by Richard Colbeck and then Alan Tudge.
Dr Aly was appointed Minister for Youth under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but the portfolio was demoted to the outer cabinet.
Dr Walsh said past efforts to engage with Australian youth have been tokenistic.
"Providing meaningful opportunities for them to contribute and shape policy is something that we historically haven't done well," he said.
'Promising' youth committee
The Labor government promised to create a Youth Steering Committee, which will be supported by the Australian Youth Affairs Coalition.
There are places available for 15 Australians aged between 12 and 25, with Dr Aly and the coalition pledging to create a diverse panel.
The committee will be self-directed, with its members deciding how they want to contribute.
Dr Walsh said while "promising", the committee will be most effective if it provides a variety of ways for members to engage.
He said traditional processes like roundtables or written reviews "favor people with certain types of abilities".
"Think about the use of social media and other things, and you get a picture that the nature of their engagement will be very, very important,"
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