Ni hao: $400 million windfall for ACT from return of Chinese students and tourists

The Chinese government's decision to remove COVID restrictions and reopen its borders, together with the apparent resumption of coal exports, has raised the prospect the giant Asian economy will support activity in the face of a succession of interest rate increases.

ANZ economists estimate China's reopening will add 0.4 of a percentage point to Australia's growth through this year and next, primarily due to the return of Chinese students and an increase in gas exports.

RBC Capital Markets chief economist Su-Lin Ong said China's decision to scrap its COVID restrictions was the most significant development in the global economy in the past two months and would be a "net positive" for Australia.

While ANZ economists think weak activity in China's property sector will hold demand for Australian iron ore down, Ms Ong said she expected tourism and education exports would lift.

ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said revenue from Chinese students and tourists last financial year was 74 per cent lower than before the pandemic, and although high travel costs were likely to limit the tourism rebound, prospects for higher education were much more promising.

In 2019, education exports were worth around $40 billion and about $10 billion of that came from Chinese students, who are considered to be one of the most lucrative segments of the market.

During the pandemic, the number of Chinese students coming to Australia plunged but last year 153,239 were continuing their studies, mostly online.

However, the Chinese government's abandonment of its zero COVID policy and the imposition of a snap ban on recognition of offshore qualifications obtained through online learning (which has since been softened) sent tens thousands of students scrambling to organise travel to Australia to continue or commence their studies in person.

There are currently around 50,000 Chinese nationals with student visas, about 8000 of which are due to expire mid-year. It is understood applications for a further 5000 visas are being processed with an average turnaround time of 13 days.

Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson said universities had been prepared for the return of Chinese students since Australia's borders reopened more than year ago.

Ms Jackson said universities were working closely with government departments to "facilitate the safe return of all students".

But International Education Association of Australia chief executive Phil Honeywood said China's abrupt move to effectively ban online learning at foreign institutions had surprised many.

"That transition period took a number of universities by surprise and they are now having to ensure that they can guarantee a return to full on-campus learning for all students," Mr Honeywood said, adding that it was too early to tell if the number of Chinese students in Australia would return to pre-COVID levels.

According to the ANZ analysis, before the pandemic, the ACT hosted around 2000 Chinese students each year.

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Australian National University Deputy Vice Chancellor, international and corporate, Professor Sally Wheeler said the number of Chinese students attending the university was below pre-COVID levels but was increasing, and the university would be hosting its biggest contingent of international students since 2019.

There had been concerns returning students would encounter significant logistical issues such as catching a flight, obtaining a visa or finding accommodation, but Professor Wheeler said students had not raised any particular difficulties.

She said the university was expecting a full complement of domestic and international students to attend this year.

"We will probably have a full campus, and a full campus is always good," Professor Wheeler said.

The University of Canberra said international student enrolments resembled those pre-COVID.

Ms Dunk said the influx of Chinese students would heighten competition for scarce accommodation, adding to the pressure on rents.

But Real Estate Institute ACT chief executive Maria Edwards said the opening of extra on-campus accommodation at the ANU had helped to hold down demand for private rentals.

Ms Edwards said many agents reported they had had their quietest January for many years.

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