Canberra's northside will nearly double in population size over the next four decades to house more than half-a-million people, taking in about 65 per cent of the capital's residents.
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The expected growth has already forced the ACT government to bring forward the date by which 100,000 new homes will be required in the capital.
The government previously expected the new dwellings would be needed by 2063, but now says they will be needed by 2050.
The inner north's population is expected to grow by almost 130 per cent over four decades, driven by infill development, new population projections reveal.
The southern suburbs of Canberra will continue to decline in size, with fewer than 280,000 people living south of Lake Burley Griffin by 2060.
The ACT's population will grow to more than 784,000 people in June 2060, at an average growth rate of 1.4 per cent a year, the government believes.
Elena Mitchell moved to Canberra a fortnight ago from Melbourne to take up a graduate job, picking the northside over the southside for the ease of getting around.
"Someone posted in the Facebook group [for graduates] saying don't live in the south. So that influenced the decision," Ms Mitchell said.
"They said there was no tramline there and you'd have to take the bus, and I don't have a car. I haven't been to the southside yet."
Ms Mitchell, who is living in a sharehouse in Dickson, said she was impressed by the capital and might go over the lake for an "excursion" but there had not been a pressing reason to make the trip as everything she needed was around Dickson and the city. "I haven't met anyone who's living in the south," she said.
The government expects much of the population growth to come from net migration, the projections show. The projects were prepared by ACT Treasury in consultation with the Australian National University's school of demography.
But the Tuggeranong area - which takes in some of the city's southernmost suburbs including Banks, Bonython, Calwell, Greenway and Conder - is expected to stagnate, losing 331 people over the 39-year period; the area will drop from housing 20 per cent of the capital's population to 11 per cent.
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Planning decisions will be taken to drive people to areas with capacity, such as Tuggeranong, an ACT government spokeswoman said.
"Growth [will be] concentrated along transport corridors and in areas with easy access to local shops, recreational facilities and green spaces," the spokeswoman said.
"Consideration for local environmental and cultural assets will also be considered in directing appropriate areas for new dwellings, as per the 'identified change areas' set out in the draft district strategies."
The Molonglo Valley district will be Canberra's fastest growing area in the next 40 years, growing at an average annual rate of 5.3 per cent, but Belconnen is forecast to remain the largest district.
Infill developments in the North Canberra area will drive the second fastest growth rate, the government said.
The ACT government now believes Canberra will need an extra 100,000 homes by 2050 to house the city's growing population.
However, draft district planning strategies forecast the new homes would be needed by 2063, and will be updated when they are finalised.
"Assuming the ACT's target for 70 per cent of new dwellings to be within the existing urban boundary, this means a target of around 40,500 new dwellings in infill areas by 2046 with 17,300 in greenfield precincts and, by 2063, 70,000 infill and 30,000 greenfield dwellings respectively," the draft documents said.
An upside scenario - assuming a higher rate of returning overseas skilled migrants - showed the population could be as high as 817,000 people in the same period, while a downside scenario - assuming lower net migration - puts the population at 759,000 in 2060.
"The updated projections incorporate a new set of assumptions, which take account of the impact of COVID-19 for international migrant cohorts," the government's forecast, released on Thursday, said.
The median age will rise from 35 years in 2021 to 37 in 2060, while the proportion of Canberrans aged over 65 will grow from 13.6 per cent in June 2022 to 14.6 per cent in June 2060.
"In contrast, the 0 to 14 years age group is expected to reduce from 18.5 per cent of the population in June 2021 to 17.6 per cent of the population in June 2060," the government said.
"Importantly, the key age group for labour force participation, 15-64 years, is expected to decrease marginally as a share of the population between June 2021 and June 2060."
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The proportion of people aged between 15 and 64 will drop from 68.2 per cent to 67.8 per cent.
Census data from 2021 revealed net migration to the ACT was significantly higher than previous estimates, and strong net migration would persist over the projection period.
"The projected population for June 2058 is around 63,000 persons higher than the previous projections published in 2019," the government said.
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Jasper Lindell
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
