Improvements to the Canberra-to-Sydney train service have always been just around the bend.
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The picturesque and circuitous route is known for its ambling pace rather than its speed, to put it mildly.
Improvements have often been imminent over the years but the journey time has remained the same for more than half a century.
There was a flurry of fresh enthusiasm for an upgrade to the service after a couple of experts put together a striking proposal which suggested progressive changes could cut the journey time from four hours to 1.5 between the two cities.
Yes, it would take a new line into Canberra Airport. Yes, it would need new trains. Yes, it would avoid the trouble of a tunnel underneath Mt Ainslie.
And, no, there was not any new money earmarked by anyone anywhere for this nation-changing project.
High-speed train would replace flights
Nearly 19,000 passengers a month travel on the existing train service between Sydney and Canberra, an average that has bounced back to pre-COVID levels.
It has long been acknowledged improvements to the line are a good idea. Proposal after proposal has come and gone, from realignments, speedier trains and tilt trains.
Just cutting the time on the existing service to make it competitive with driving would make a significant difference.
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr has repeatedly said that noble effort would bring the 19th century service into the 20th century.
Introducing true high-speed train travel would compete with flying. That would be truly revolutionary. Canberra Airport released a study in 2012 which predicted airlines would stop flying between the two cities completely if a proper $11 billion high-speed rail link was built.
However, others, including Infrastructure Australia, have doubted whether the high operating costs of high-speed rail, would compete with air travel.
Canberra vs. Newcastle: Who gets it first?
The federal Infrastructure Minister, Catherine King, continued the Commonwealth's enthusiasm for high-speed rail this week.
But as far as the capital is concerned, she was enthusiastic for the wrong leg.
"Of course we want to build the entirety of it, but you have to start. And the start has to be Sydney to Newcastle," Ms King said in an address to the National Press Club on Wednesday.
A spokeswoman for the minister said the federal government's High Speed Rail Authority would continue to advance planning for the full network between Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and consider further stages.
"While the government's priority is the Sydney-Newcastle section - to which we have allocated $500 million for planning, early works and corridor acquisition - interim upgrades and staging opportunities will also be considered as part of high-speed rail and faster rail planning, to progressively improve rail services," the spokeswoman said.
NSW Labor wants to see UK rail expert Professor Andrew McNaughton's report into high-speed rail options for the state, commissioned by the state's government but never publicly released, before the party makes any commitments about improvements to the Canberra line.
The report recommended the government prioritise high-speed rail between Wollongong and Newcastle, The Sydney Morning Herald reported last year without having access to a copy.
A Transport for NSW spokesman said the state was working on business cases for in-corridor faster rail improvements to existing lines.
"Minister for Infrastructure and Cities Rob Stokes wrote to the Commonwealth Minister for Infrastructure late last year, asking the National High Speed Rail Authority to work with the Greater Cities Commission and Transport for NSW to ensure plans for high speed and fast rail are well coordinated between the Commonwealth and NSW governments," the spokesman said.
A link to Canberra was identified as a potential route for upgrades, but the McNaughton review has reportedly ranked that as a lower priority for the state.
Is it any surprise NSW would seek upgrades for a link that benefits commuters in its own state rather than a line that serves, at least currently, predominantly tourists in another jurisdiction?
Who wears the cost?
Mr Barr has also been quick to point out over the years the ACT would not be able to fund the upgrade to the line itself. The territory would happily assist on upgrades on its side of the border, but this is a very small piece of a much larger puzzle.
The Grattan Institute's Marion Terrill, the think tank's transport and cities program director, pours cold water on the idea of a "ruinously expensive" east coast high-speed rail network.
"I think each project needs to be assessed on its own merits, but I think high speed rail is very difficult for Australia because our populations are too small and too far apart," Ms Terrill said.
"And the other thing is, even though rail is less carbon intensive than flying, that's when it's up and running. But in the time that it takes to construct the track - new track uses a lot of cement and steel and it's very emissions intensive."
Ms Terrill said it was understandable the NSW government would prioritise upgrades that would service existing commuter travel demand, which was minimal between Canberra and Sydney.
Five years ago, the Spanish train company Talgo offered the NSW government a free trial of one of its tilt trains on the Canberra line. Their trains can take corners at higher speeds to shave down the overall travel time.
Andrew Leigh, the federal member for Fenner in Canberra's north, met with Talgo representatives at the time.
"If you have plenty of time, the train is the most scenic way to travel from Canberra to Sydney. But if it was quicker, many more Canberrans would take it," Dr Leigh said this week.
"Since I've been a member of parliament, I've been a passionate advocate of speeding up the train line. It's good for the environment, for tourism, and for productivity. We need to get it done."
But the trail has gone cold on what happened to the Talgo offer. A question to the NSW government this week went unanswered.
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The future is ... still decades away?
The Canberra Times excitedly reported in August 1964 the capital might have a high-speed rail service to Sydney "within the next decade", cutting journey times to 3 hours.
The Bureau of Transport Economics was studying the possibility of a 3.5 hour train in 1978.
Another "serious proposal" with expertise from CSIRO scientists was floated in 1984.
Speedrail, a private consortium, proposed a 350km/h link - cost: $2.4 million - in 1993.
In 2009, Canberra Airport reckoned it would be the ideal location for a second Sydney Airport, with a high-speed rail connection taking passengers to Sydney in 50 minutes.
"Canberra Airport remains committed to the development of this facility as required," its 2020 masterplan said.
After all that, is Canberra any closer to a faster rail link than it was in 1964?
Quirks of borders, who is responsible for funding what and perhaps even a lingering sense of rail pessimism seem to suggest the city is not.
The future is still more than a decade away.
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Jasper Lindell
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
