The Canberra rugby union community is bracing for tense negotiations and the biggest potential battle since the start of the professional era as officials fight to ensure the ACT Brumbies' long-term viability in the capital.
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Rugby Australia lobbed a curveball at Super Rugby franchises on Wednesday, announcing its plans for a long-discussed centralised model that would see the governing body control all five Australian teams.
On the surface it has been mooted as a game-changing moment for the sport and the "historic strategic reset" rugby needs after continued decline over the past decade.
But it set off alarm bells in Canberra, with some fearing it was the beginning of what they described as a "hostile takeover" and an eventual plan to either relocate the Brumbies, or make them a feeder franchise for bigger states.
Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan dismissed relocation talk, saying the centralisation plan was about growth and that there was "no intention to move the club".
Instead, sources suggested Rugby Australia was keen to tap into what the Brumbies were doing, and grow the club's reach beyond existing boundaries in the ACT and Southern NSW.
Rugby Australia hosted a meeting in Sydney on Wednesday to discuss a range of options and the feeling was mostly positive, although many expressed a desire for more information.
Several Brumbies officials and Canberra club figures were reluctant to comment when contacted by The Canberra Times. The Brumbies board is still discussing the best approach to the centralisation proposal and wants more details before deciding if its a plan it can back.
The club says its goals haven't changed - to win titles, develop Wallabies and embrace the professional and amateur rugby communities in Canberra.
The centralisation fears, however, stem from the way Rugby Australia is using the Irish rugby structure as a cornerstone for the transformation in Australia. In Ireland, Leinster and Munster are the two powerhouse clubs, with the rest viewed as more second-tier operations.
In Australia, NSW and Queensland are considered the most influential states given their populations and participation numbers.
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The Western Force is now backed by billionaire Andrew Forrest, and Rugby Australia has been the Melbourne Rebels' biggest backers since adding the team to the mix in 2011.
The Brumbies have been the most successful team and has, for the most part, been able to stand on its own financially and performance wise.
The Brumbies, Force and Rebels will want assurances their title aspirations will not suffer because of the pursuit of success in the biggest markets - Sydney and Brisbane.
It has been suggested a hybrid centralisation model may suit Australian teams best, but as it stands Rugby Australia is looking to take on the ownership of all franchises to align operations with a view to improving results on and off the field.
Rugby Australia officials have privately reassured all club bosses they have no intention of reducing the number of teams, or changing the way talent is distributed, but the franchises are awaiting a full proposal.
But the governing body would have the power to make any decisions it deems appropriate, including relocation, player allocation, coaching appointments or the number of teams in the competition if it controls the franchises.
The NSW Waratahs and Brumbies are facing financial strain, and having Rugby Australia take over operations would alleviate the problem.
The Brumbies' financial pressure has been well documented given the small market they operate within, but shifting the financial burden comes with other risks for the future.
Rugby Australia published its intentions on Wednesday morning, with each Super Rugby team adding a statement to the plan. The input from Brumbies chairman Matt Nobbs was the most lukewarm of all.
"The Brumbies will explore the process of helping shape the structure and direction of rugby in Australia," Nobbs said.
"This club has a proud history of innovation and success in Australian rugby, and we see this as an opportunity to drive rugby forward in the ACT and Southern NSW."
Rugby Australia has committed to having five teams as part of its new broadcast deal and say the Brumbies are a key part of future plans, but they also hope to crack into new markets and grow the game.
Centralisation will have other implications, including having a say in coaching and high-performance appointments and the contracting model One of the first indications centralisation was imminent was when Brumbies scrumhalf Nic White moved to the Western Force.
In the past, rival clubs have been frustrated by the Brumbies' long list of Test players, despite rejecting those same players from their own development programs.
One idea behind centralising contracts is being able to distribute talent to ensure the best players are regularly starting rather than playing as reserves.
In White's case, he didn't want to leave the capital but had explored opportunities overseas.
Given Rugby Australia views Ryan Lonergan as a future star, and the fact Lonergan plays in the same position as White, there were moves made to try to keep both in Australia and maximise their playing time.
It resulted in White moving to the Force, while Lonergan is poised to be the Brumbies' starting No.9 next year.
"There's been an overall dilution of talent leading to worse performances across the system for too long - that's on the men's side," Rugby Australia chief executive Phil Waugh told the Australian Financial Review.
That is largely seen as a benefit to the centralisation model, and a way to help deliver the best results for the Wallabies.
But pointing to a "dilution of talent" will fuel concerns about talent allocation.
WHAT'S THE CENTRALISATION PLAN?
Rugby Australia has been talking about a potential centralisation model for more than a decade, but finally decided to pull the trigger in an attempt to reverse the downward trend leading into the British and Irish Lions series in 2025, a home men's World Cup in 2027 and a home women's World Cup in 2029.
Rugby Australia sources conceded the powerbrokers knew centralisation would be a touchy subject, particularly in Canberra, but the leaders were adamant it was the right move.
Queensland has expressed some resistance to the move, but NSW, the Rebels and the Western Force are all on board.
As part of the changes, Super Rugby clubs will continue with the operational deliver of the men's and women's competitions and be aligned to a national high-performance plan.
It's understood Super Rugby coaching and player contracts would move into Rugby Australia's hands, as well as the Wallabies, Wallaroos and sevens programs.
Rugby Australia said the alignment was designed to improve results, commercial performance of Super Rugby teams and "streamline the governance of professional rugby".
Waugh said the move needed to be made now to be chase success over the next six years.
"Together, we need to change our collective approach to ensure that rugby in Australia can prosper, on and off the field - from the heartbeat of our game at the grassroots right through to our Wallabies, Wallaroos and sevens teams," Waugh said.
"We firmly believe that strategic structural change is required if we are to deliver success for the game in the future - particularly with the pipeline of major Rugby events happening in our backyard through to 2032.
"This is a significant project and needs to be done through a spirit of partnership across Australian Rugby, motivated by the collective desire to ensure we are winning on the field and ensuring that we are sustainable, and able to grow off it.
"The implementation of this model cannot be a one-size-fits-all model, and needs to reflect the specifics of each Super Rugby Club, Member Union and their markets.
"It will take time to successfully deliver this project, however we intend to formally commence work on rolling it out over the coming weeks, with a plan to methodically work through the process with our many stakeholders.
"With the many exciting events on the horizon for Australian Rugby, it is important that we take this opportunity to really set up our system, and our Clubs to be more successful, and drive the game forward at all levels."
NSW quickly jumped on board. They loom as one of the states who will benefit the most given Sydney is the biggest market in the country.
Chairman Tony Crawford said: "The reset of professional rugby in this country is long overdue. We are committed to RA's new strategic direction which will give the Waratahs an even better opportunity to develop, attract and retain the rich seam of talent that we have, and to grow our game from grass roots, at every level."
The Rebels and Force said they were supportive of structural reform, while Queensland chairman Brett Clark indicated the Reds were not fully committed.
"The Queensland Reds will be behind measures that will lead to more successful Super Rugby clubs and Australian sides on and off the field," Clark said.
"There is a lot of detail to work through, and we are supportive to start on what the model will look like in Queensland and how we can contribute to ensure sustained success on-field at all levels."
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