The 2024 ACT election just got interesting

Two independents - businessman Peter Strong and medical scientist Ann Bray - have launched their campaign for the October poll but there are more to come.

Looking to the success of the teal independents and David Pocock in the 2022 federal election, they are hopeful this can be replicated in the territory.

But they face a difficult path.

There have only ever been a handful independents elected in the territory, and none have been voted in since 1998. Minor party candidates, excluding the Greens, have taken seats before - but not since 2001.

And therein lies the harsh reality for the independents.

The independents know they are unlikely to get there alone and will need to rely on each other when it comes to the poll.

Developing a party to get them above the line, much like Senator Pocock did federally, will be the key to gaining any sort of traction among the Canberra community.

Can they still be considered independent if this is the case? If one agrees, yes, they can still go their own way, how would they govern if they collectively hold the balance of power?

Then there is the key question: if these independents came to hold the balance of power, who would they choose?

It's clear a driving force behind the establishment of this group is the frustration from 20 years of one party's continuous rule. But in progressive Canberra would they want to associate themselves with the Liberals?

That may prove a death knell for their cause.

To be in with a shot, the independents need to build support among the voters who would never back the Liberals but are disillusioned with Labor and the Greens and are prepared to take a chance on a Liberal government with independents holding them accountable.

For independents to have any chance of success in the ACT election they will also need to have name recognition. Candidates will need to be well known in the community, as that was key to Senator Pocock's success.

There is definitely an "it's time" factor at play in some parts of the ACT.

The Liberals are hopeful they can seize on that at the next election but forming a majority government in the territory for the Liberals is as likely as climbing Mt Everest in thongs and a T-shirt.

Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee has previously said she is open to working with independents. If the Liberals want any chance of winning the territory election this year they would have to do just that.

But on the other hand independents could also steer votes away from the Liberals.

Labor is probably feeling confident about its chances at the next election. The announcement of independents probably won't cause many members to lose sleep but it should prompt a few fleeting anxious thoughts.

These will only intensify if the independents have a well-oiled campaign, with big names and progressive policies, focused on the perils of having one party in power for 23 years.

The Greens would be feeling probably a little more apprehensive, after all, if independents are to win any seats it could be at their expense.

The 2024 ACT election just got interesting.