Rarely does the apprentice jockey know best.
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But on Tuesday afternoon Tyler Schiller knew he had a winner on his hands, even if trainer Keith Dryden didn't.
It's an admission the experienced Canberra trainer isn't afraid to make, particularly given Schiller's prediction came true.
The apprentice jockey rode Dryden's Dream Runner to victory in the $500,000 Little Dance at Randwick, edging Chris Waller's Solar Apex in a tight finish.
While Dryden didn't arrive at Randwick with much confidence, he was pleased to depart with a lucrative and emotional win.
"It's a great thrill," Dryden told Channel 7. "I can't thank Tyler enough. He said 'this is a good thing'. I said 'you're joking mate'. Tyler again said 'I think he can win. Last start he sat four and five wide but he acquitted himself well'. All credit to Tyler."
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The win came an hour after Schiller, riding Cisco Bay, came within a head of running down Rustic Steel in the $2 million Big Dance.
Canberra's stables punched above their weight, Nick Olive's Ready To Humble finishing sixth and Barbara Joseph, Paul and Matt Jones' One Aye seventh.
Having come so close in the feature, Schiller was thrilled to ride a winner on Melbourne Cup day.
"I was pretty confident with him," Schiller said. "The other day he had a tough run. Today he drew a gate so I was delighted to be able to put him in the race and conserve energy. I took the shortcut around the turn and he ran a genuine race.
"When I got a bump I thought it might take a bit of his momentum, but late in the straight he was strong and I was always confident he was going to win."
Keith Dryden's win in Sydney came as punters braved the wet at Thoroughbred Park in Canberra.
The meeting started on the best possible note for the veteran trainer, Sweet Honesty thriving in the heavy going to salute in the first.
Perhaps the most impressive performance of the day came from Norm Gardner's Redhair'n'freckles. The mare won by seven lengths in a dominant victory.
The trainer was always confident going into the race, but even he didn't think she'd win by that much.
"She likes wet tracks, she was going well and she likes 1000m races," Gardner said. "I knew she was going well and thought she'd win comfortably but I never thought she'd win like that.
"Because it's so difficult to get into the highways we'll probably go to Snake Gully Cup day next week. There's a class three race there for her in Gundagai that's worth a bit of money, so we'll head there."
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