Dire climate warning shows Australia vulnerable to 'hostile actors'

It also warns that climate change represents a cascading, non-linear risk to humanity, a threat that is expected to compound and expand exponentially, the hotter the planet becomes.

Days after insisting Australia is on its way to hitting its net zero target to be 42 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen will on Thursday - the same day as the start of the United Nations COP28 climate conference in Dubai - deliver the annual climate change statement.

In excerpts of the statement and speech to Parliament seen by The Canberra Times, Mr Bowen will describe the new national security assessment as "frank and thorough".

"Extreme weather events caused by climate change place increased strain on Australia's energy networks and this fragility could be used by hostile actors," the minister is expected to say.

"Dealing with climate extremes is likely to place additional stress on national coordination arrangements and domestic crisis management agencies, stretching Australia's emergency capabilities that deploy domestically and internationally."

The Canberra Times understands the annual climate change statement is separate from, but informed by elements of, a confidential, Labor-ordered Climate Risk Assessment Report by the Office of National Intelligence. The government has insisted it will not the report release despite continued urging by the former defence leaders and crossbench MPs and senators.

It comes after the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union was struck with the Pacific island nation Tuvalu. It is a pact with a security guarantee where Australia will offer permanent residency to people affected by the climate crisis.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Wednesday night described the pact as the "most significant act of Australian diplomacy since our support for the independence of Papua New Guinea."

"Our region is no mere theatre and we are not spectators," Mr Albanese told the National Press Club in the Gough Whitlam Oration. "What Australia says and does on the world stage matters too. It matters for our neighbours, for our region, for our security and for our prosperity."

Mr Bowen is to say on Thursday that the known identified national security threats from climate change already present serious risks to Australia and the region, but there are also great unknowns if there is continued warming beyond existing targets.

"The relationship between the level of warming and the threats faced is not linear; the threats will compound and expand exponentially the hotter the planet becomes," the statement reads.

"Climate change is an existential national security risk to our Pacific partners and presents unprecedented challenges for our region. It is likely to accentuate economic factors already fuelling political instability, including risks to water insecurity across the globe."

The statement points to extreme weather events and deadly effects in the northern hemisphere and floods, bushfires and drought in Australia having significant impacts on energy security and critical infrastructure.

"These events place increased strain on Australia's energy networks, and this fragility could be used as a climate change-based force multiplier for hostile actors," the statement reads.

"The threshold for damage to Australia's energy networks from sabotage may be significantly lower during high demand/low supply periods, such as extreme weather seasons."

The statement points to more deals like the one with Tuvalu, saying vulnerable nations will likely to look to Australia and other countries for closer economic integration, "including through expanded circular labour mobility schemes and longer-term options for mobility with dignity."

It warns climate change is expected to continue driving extreme weather and global water insecurity affecting nutrition, health, livelihoods and supply chains. This could fuel political instability and lead to breakdowns in social cohesion and regional instability.

"Climate change may also impact nations' ability to cooperate to solve common problems, likely causing multilateral forums to become increasingly contested," the statement reads.

The Minister and the Assistant Minister for Climate Change Jenny McAllister will leave for the United Arab Emirates next week.

The 2023 Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Programme last week blasted G20 nations for having 2030 net zero pledges that are not currently considered credible. It stated that no G20 nation, including Australia, was reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net zero targets.