And the Oscar goes to ... Oppenheimer (probably)

It's almost a given this year's best actor statue is going to a certain Irishman.

Challenging favourite Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) for the award are Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction).

Cooper is no stranger to the Academy Awards. He's been nominated 12 times (including three nods this year) for a total of zero statues. And Maestro, with him in the lead role in front and behind the camera, is unlikely to score Cooper his first Oscar.

On the other side of the coin, Colman Domingo has earned his first Oscar nomination for Rustin, a movie that was not so memorable outside of the lead actor's performance. Domingo has been flying under the radar for years, but only really hit the awards circuit for Rustin, in which he plays the gay, black civil rights leader Bayard Rustin. As mesmerising as his performance is, it probably won't earn him the gong.

Next up is Paul Giamatti, a journeyman character actor known for everything from the blue guy in Big Fat Liar to starring in quirky wine dramedy Sideways. If anyone is going to take the Oscar off Murphy, it's probably Giamatti for his curmudgeonly turn in The Holdovers, which already earned him a Golden Globe.

Jeffrey Wright is one of those talented actors who has been in plenty of critically acclaimed projects but has never really had his breakout moment. American Fiction marks Wright's first Oscar nomination, for a role which demonstrates he can easily oscillate between drama and comedy.

None of these actors really stand a chance against Cillian Murphy. After starring in a bunch of Christopher Nolan movies in supporting roles, Murphy finally got to be the lead in the star-studded Oppenheimer, and it'll be a shock if he doesn't walk away with an Oscar. The role has already bagged him a BAFTA, Golden Globe and SAG award, among many others.

This is the most open of the acting categories this year, and the only one without a clear favourite. On top of the table we've got Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things), joined by Annette Bening (Nyad), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro).

Bening has been nominated for five Oscars, including her latest inspiring and unglamorous role as real-life open water swimmer Diana Nyad. She's never won before, but her work has earned much acclaim. It's hard to imagine any were as physically taxing as Nyad, where she spends the majority of the film in the water wearing uncomfortable prosthetic make-up. But she's the least likely to take out the award.

Huller may not be well known to the average punter, but she's a pivotal part of two Best Picture nominations this year - Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest. She's picked up a number of international and European acting awards throughout her career, and Anatomy of a Fall has been a big hit on the international film circuit, with her performance highly acclaimed.

Coming in as third most likely to take the Oscar home is Mulligan, for her heartbreaking performance as Felicia Montealegre Bernstein, the wife of American composer Leonard Bernstein, in Maestro, a role in which she out-acts everyone around her. This is her third Oscar nomination, so it's about time she won.

That brings us to Stone and Gladstone. One already has an Academy Award for best actress, as well as two other nominations, and the other is the fresh face on the circuit. Stone has picked up the BAFTA, Golden Globe for best actress in a comedy and the Critics Choice award for playing the lead role of Bella Baxter in Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, while Gladstone claimed the Golden Globe for best actress in a drama, and the all-important SAG - voted on by her fellow actors - for Mollie Burkhart in Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon. The pair are equally favoured to win on the night, but it would make for a better story if Gladstone gets the statue; she would be the first Native American to win an acting Oscar.

Another category that's pretty much all sewn up before the day is Actor in a Supporting Role, and it's Oppenheimer with the goods again for Robert Downey Jr. His fellow contenders are Sterling K Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things).

Brown's nomination was probably the biggest surprise, but a welcome one. Best known for his work in TV, in particular This Is Us, Brown is a first-time nominee at the Oscars. While he turned in a fine performance as the lead character's recently-out gay, drug-taking, plastic surgeon brother in American Fiction, he is least likely to take home the statue.

You can never rule out the Academy awarding the likes of De Niro a statue, but it seems that Bob won't be adding to his pair of Oscars this year. De Niro has eight acting nominations to his name (and one as a producer) at the Academy Awards, as well as countless other award nominations.

Lots of people were calling for Gosling to get a statue as soon as Barbie was released. No one could have predicted this time last year that the portrayal of a plastic doll would be so well received, but Gosling - now a three-time Oscar nominee - brought surprising depth to Ken, and he will be getting up on stage on the night whether he wins or not - to perform the film's hilarious smash hit song I'm Just Ken.

Ruffalo is the likeliest candidate to challenge his good mate Downey Jr for the gong, for playing Duncan Wedderburn in Poor Things. The Hulk actor has been nominated for several Academy Awards previously, all supporting, and has a couple of Emmys, Globes and SAGs to go with them. It would be a safe bet to suggest he will win an Oscar one day, but probably not this year.

This is Downey Jr's year. He's been name-checked in many an acceptance speech this awards season, he's followed his team's advice and tried to play a role that was more than just a slightly different version of himself. As the contemptible Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer, he's delivered a pared-back and career-redefining performance, and he's picked up a slew of shiny statues for his trouble, including a BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award and SAG.

The final acting category is best supporting actress, and it looks to be going to a first-timer as well. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) is in the box seat, with Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), American Ferrera (Barbie) and veteran Jodie Foster (Nyad) the other contenders.

While it's excellent to see Blunt finally recognised by the Academy, her role as Kitty Oppenheimer is not the strongest of her career. It is a fierce and layered role, but there's so much going on in Oppenheimer that it gets a bit lost in the crowd. Her highlight of the awards season has probably already happened, scoring a SAG as part of the ensemble for Oppenheimer.

If anyone can pip Randolph for the Oscar, it's Brooks. The Orange is the New Black actress first played The Color Purple's Sofia on Broadway, and carried that scene-stealing performance into the film adaptation. It's the same role that earned Oprah her Oscar nomination back in 1984, and Brooks more the delivers in this musical remake.

Ferrera's feminism monologue in Barbie was so stirring and memorable it earned the actress her first Oscar nomination. Far more familiar to TV audiences as Ugly Betty, Ferrera has often been underrated as an actress. She earned a host of awards as Betty, but didn't receive any nominations in the other major awards shows for Barbie this season, so she comes in with probably the weakest chance.

Randolph's moving and devastating portrayal of grieving mother Mary Lamb in The Holdovers is almost guaranteed to send her home with a gold statue. Starting her career in opera before moving to the stage and then screen, Randolph is a multi-talented actress and singer who is only just stepping into the big-time. She'll forever be linked with her scene-stealing performance in The Holdovers.

As you may have guessed, in our minds there is simply not a world in which the Academy does not give Oppenheimer the award for Best Picture.

The film is the front-runner for one of the biggest awards for the night, and is also up for directing (Christopher Nolan), adapted screenplay, costume design, make-up and hairstyling, cinematography, production design, sound, film editing and original score. It's well and truly set to clean up.

When Canberra Times reviewer Cris Kennedy gave Oppenheimer five stars in July, he wrote: "With every second of its 180-minute run-time carefully considered and masterfully constructed, Christopher Nolan's biopic of the man behind the atomic bomb is unmissable cinema."

And he wasn't alone. Critics around the world praised Nolan's film - even if it wasn't as successful at the box office as its pink-hued counterpart.

Of course there has been much talk of Greta Gerwig's Barbie in the lead-up to the Oscars - particularly when it comes to the snubs, which we will get to later. The perfectly pink box office hit is also among the nominees for this year's Best Picture but is unlikely to win, having only picked up a couple of gongs this award season, mainly for its music. But according to the film's narrator Helen Mirren, that's not an issue.

"You can't get upset about things like that, honestly," she told Entertainment Tonight last month. "What is fantastic is that Barbie was the highest-grossing film that Warner Bros has ever had in their lives and do you remember who won best film of the year before last?"

Another big film expected to make a splash at the awards - but not necessarily walking away with Best Picture - is Poor Things. With a slew of nominations including directing (Yorgos Lanthimos), adapted screenplay and costume design, the film made a strong festival debut at Venice Film Festival, picking up the top prize, the Golden Lion. And if it wasn't for Oppenheimer, it would have strong prospects for Best Picture.

American Fiction - which is available on Prime Video as of February 27 - is another festival success nominated for Best Picture. It may have picked up the influential People's Choice award at the Toronto Film Festival, but failed to collect any Globes or BAFTAs. Meanwhile, Anatomy of a Fall walked away with the Palme d'Or at Cannes - one of the most prestigious prizes in world cinema. While it may not have a chance at Best Picture at the Oscars, it has already won best original screenplay at the Globes and the BAFTAs so could be looking to pick up an Academy Award in that same category.

Other films in the category include boarding school comedy The Holdovers, Martin Scorses's Killers of the Flower Moon, Bradley Cooper's Maestro, critically acclaimed indie film Past Lives and international film The Zone of Interest.

Is Christopher Nolan in line to get his first Oscar for Oppenheimer? All signs point to yes. And not just for Best Picture, but also for best direction. The British-American filmmaker has only been nominated in the category once before - for Dunkirk in 2018 - and has been nominated five other times before this year, for Memento, Inception and Dunkirk.

Also nominated this year is Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall, Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things and Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest.

It's worth noting that this is the 10th time Scorsese has been nominated for Directing at the Oscars, having only won one in 2006 for The Departed. This makes him the second most-nominated director of all time, behind the late William Wyler, who has the record of 12 nominations.

The biggest snub making headlines after nominations were released had to be Barbie. While the film was nominated for a few awards including Best Picture, supporting actor and supporting actress, its star (Margot Robbie) and director (Greta Gerwig) were glaring omissions. Even Gosling was driven to comment.

"There is no Ken without Barbie, and there is no Barbie movie without Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie, the two people most responsible for this history-making, globally celebrated film," he said shortly after the nominations had been announced.

But of course, the snubs don't stop there.

While this is the first year three of the Best Picture nominees were directed by women - Barbie (Gerwig), Past Lives (Celine Song) and Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet) - only Triet made the directing nominations list.

When describing Song in the film's September review, Canberra Times reviewer Jane Freebury said the film "has the clarity and confidence that comes to us all when we tell our life story, and is perhaps cathartic for its writer-director too".

Someone who is no stranger to Oscar snubs, Leonardo DiCaprio, has been overlooked yet again, this time for his role in Killers of the Flower Moon.

This is the seventh time the actor has starred in a Best Picture-nominated film without scoring a nomination himself. The other six films include Titanic, Gangs of New York, The Departed, Inception, Django Unchained, and Don't Look Up.

Joining DiCaprio in the snubbed actor list - which may be surprising to some - is Zac Efron for his role in wrestling film The Iron Claw, with critics admiring the High School Musical star for his depth in this role.

"It is a deeply, deeply sad and profound film. That's the unexpected part, amid all the baby oil and the sparkling underpants," Canberra Times reviewer Cris Kennedy said in January.

"Most unexpected of all is the raw and deeply felt performance from Efron, his graduation with honours from Disney teen star to Oscar-worthy thesp."

Andrew Haigh's devastating ghost romance, All of Us Strangers, didn't get a look-in at this year's Oscars, despite being nominated for six BAFTAs and one Golden Globe.

And while Cailee Spaeny took out the best actress prize at the Venice Film Festival and received a Golden Globe nomination for her title role in Priscilla, the Oscars didn't bestow a single nod to the Sofia Coppola film.