Jack Wighton's contract decision to impact on Raiders' premiership hopes

They said they'd be content, even if it meant Wighton leaving for more money or a lifestyle change. They said Wighton would always be a Raider, even if he was playing for someone else.

But that all changed on Wednesday. Wighton was linked to the South Sydney Rabbitohs, then a report emerged speculating he was close to committing to a $3.4 million deal to join the famous club.

If accurate, Wighton will be sacrificing $1 million to make the move to Sydney. It's hard to fathom after the Raiders tabled a four-year deal worth $4.4 million, especially after Wighton said he was going on to the open market to see what sort of options were available.

We all presumed that meant money and an increase on his existing deal, which was set to see him pocket $900,000 next year if he took up an option for 2024.

Maybe he was looking for something else and, if the the reports of the Rabbitohs offer are accurate, it's time to ask some tough questions.

What will Wighton's departure mean for the Raiders' premiership window?

Are the Rabbitohs really a better chance of winning a premiership than the Raiders?

How can South Sydney possibly fit Wighton - a Dally M and Clive Churchill Medal winner - under the salary cap while already boasting Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, Cameron Murray, Jai Arrow, Campbell Graham and Damien Cook?

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It's hoped Wighton will make a call on his future within the next fortnight and it appears the race is down to the Raiders, the Rabbitohs and the Dolphins despite supposedly attracting interest from 10 clubs.

The prospect of him leaving is very much a reality, and Raiders officials and the club's supporters will be hoping he makes that call sooner rather than later.

The Raiders were thought to be in the premiership-window zone - that magical period of time where the stars align on and off the field to chase a title.

They got close in 2019 - the club's first grand final appearance since 1994 - and made a preliminary final in 2020, but so much has changed since and Wighton's potential exit would throw Ricky Stuart's plans into the air.

It is true that individuals don't win premierships, but Wighton has the X-factor that opposition teams fear. It's why the Raiders are so keen to make him the first million-dollar man in the club's history.

So much of Canberra's game is built around Wighton, and when he's on song the Green Machine is almost unstoppable.

If he goes, the Raiders will still have Joe Tapine, Hudson Young, Jamal Fogarty, Xavier Savage and Corey Horsburgh. Does that keep the premiership window open? Raiders fans are hoping they won't have to answer that question, but it appears likely that a rebuild around that nucleus is on the cards.

The problem is the recruitment market is getting tighter and tighter. Clubs are able to hold on to more of their high-profile stars as the salary cap increases, and the constant talk of expansion - either via a Pasifika team or one in Perth - will make the open market more competitive.

That's why it's so crucial Wighton stays in Canberra, at least for the short term. There are minimal half options available for next year, and while there are some big names like Jerome Luai and Luke Keary available for 2025, getting them to come to the capital is harder than most think.

If Wighton is making his decision solely on premiership potential - and he's willing to sacrifice a significant chunk of money for the final contract of his career - are Souths the safer bet?

The Rabbitohs have finished in the top eight every year since 2018. They finished seventh last year - one spot ahead of the Raiders - they are considered one of the favourites this year.

They won a breakthrough premiership in 2014, but they have made the grand final just twice since 1971.

If you stand the Raiders and Rabbitohs' rosters next to each other, Souths do appear to have more firepower, particularly on the left edge.

Imagine Wighton combining with Walker and Alex Johnston, with Mitchell chiming in when he sees an opportunity. It has the ingredients for a lethal partnership.

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But does that make them premiership ready and guarantee Wighton a better chance of winning a title? Hardly. The Raiders have struggled this year and have won three games. The Rabbitohs have won four.

So many clubs try to sell the premiership dream as a sweetener when getting contracts over the line. There was even talk the chance to win a premiership would weigh on Wighton's mind if he was deciding between the Raiders and the Dolphins. Really? The Dolphins?

Sure, they've got the mastercoach Wayne Bennett at the helm, but to suggest they're better placed to win a premiership than the Raiders seems ludicrous just seven games into their existence.

The Raiders have room to move in the salary cap. While they have focused on upgrading Young, Horsburgh and Emre Guler, they also chased David Fifita with a $900,000 per-season deal and they're willing to go over $1 million for Wighton.

The Rabbitohs are already stacked, so it seems unfathomable that they could even offer $850,000 per year.

Somehow, Sydney teams seem to be able squeeze star talent into the same salary cap as the rest of the competition.

For example, the Penrith Panthers are confident they can keep Luai and Dylan Edwards - both players who would command more than $1 million on the open market - despite already having Nathan Cleary - the game's best player - and Isaah Yeo among a star-studded forward pack.

Yes, the Panthers have felt the squeeze after back to back premierships and have lost players such as Viliame Kikau, Api Koroisau, Stephen Crichton and Matt Burton. But having three players - Luai, Edwards and Cleary - earning more than $1 million seems to be a stretch.

Can it be done? Sure. Especially if Wighton is willing to take a pay cut. But it does raise a question for the salary cap auditor.

So far, the contract distraction has hardly been a distraction for the Raiders. They've won both games they've played since Wighton announced his intention to go to the market.

The players are supportive of him seeing what options he has, and so are chief executive Don Furner and coach Ricky Stuart.

Wighton has played a straight bat to questions, but he has also been willing to engage about his reasons and his timeline.

He hopes to have an answer within a couple of weeks, which would give the Raiders time to plan for his exit if that's the way he goes.

Some fans say Wighton doesn't owe the Raiders anything. In some ways he owes them everything. The Civic nightclub brawl a few years ago ... the incident in the city earlier this year after his birthday.

The Raiders stuck by him in the dark times. They've shielded him, yet still rewarded him with sizeable contracts. This time, they're taking a risk by offering a four-year deal.

Wighton will be 34 by the time his next deal expires, if he signs a four-year extension. He is at the peak of his powers now, but Jarrod Croker's rough couple of years with injury serve as a cautionary tale to long-term deals.

There are no guarantees Wighton will be as good in four years as he is now. But it's a risk the club is willing to take, and will find out soon enough what Wighton is willing to gamble.

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